Defiance Quantum ETF price forecast: what the model says

QTUM SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$130.46

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$149.12

Bear 68%

$106.88

Bull 68%

$221.81

68% Range Width

77.1%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $113.25 $118.62 $124.12 $130.20 $136.73 $143.55 $151.22
2026-11-29 $105.18 $112.89 $121.09 $130.50 $141.04 $152.52 $166.04
2026-12-06 $100.64 $109.98 $120.19 $132.24 $146.17 $161.89 $181.13
2026-12-13 $97.00 $107.53 $119.29 $133.52 $150.41 $170.03 $194.85
2026-12-20 $94.91 $106.55 $119.81 $136.20 $156.14 $179.95 $211.02
2026-12-27 $92.87 $105.43 $119.97 $138.28 $161.07 $188.95 $226.43
2027-01-03 $90.27 $103.43 $118.90 $138.70 $163.82 $195.25 $238.62
2027-01-10 $86.48 $99.81 $115.66 $136.21 $162.68 $196.39 $243.91
2027-01-17 $84.32 $98.05 $114.57 $136.30 $164.74 $201.67 $254.99
2027-01-24 $83.74 $98.20 $115.82 $139.35 $170.73 $212.37 $274.16
2027-01-31 $81.56 $96.24 $114.30 $138.71 $171.72 $216.28 $283.84
2027-02-07 $80.43 $95.55 $114.35 $140.09 $175.45 $224.09 $299.65
2027-02-14 $77.94 $93.24 $112.47 $139.13 $176.35 $228.60 $311.90
2027-02-21 $76.06 $91.65 $111.48 $139.36 $178.98 $235.81 $329.10
2027-02-28 $74.97 $91.03 $111.73 $141.26 $184.03 $246.89 $353.49
2027-03-07 $73.78 $90.23 $111.66 $142.67 $188.41 $257.18 $377.56
2027-03-14 $73.23 $90.24 $112.67 $145.63 $195.19 $271.65 $410.37
2027-03-21 $72.49 $89.95 $113.23 $147.93 $201.08 $285.07 $442.88
2027-03-28 $71.18 $88.83 $112.58 $148.39 $204.10 $293.99 $468.06
2027-04-04 $68.89 $86.29 $109.85 $145.64 $201.89 $293.89 $475.73
2027-04-11 $67.65 $85.15 $109.05 $145.74 $204.21 $301.69 $499.96
2027-04-18 $67.48 $85.50 $110.38 $149.10 $212.00 $319.62 $547.48
2027-04-25 $66.09 $84.09 $109.11 $148.40 $212.99 $325.39 $569.79
2027-05-02 $65.43 $83.69 $109.28 $149.93 $217.79 $338.52 $610.37
2027-05-09 $63.81 $81.99 $107.67 $148.86 $218.60 $345.14 $639.48
2027-05-16 $62.59 $80.85 $106.88 $149.12 $221.81 $356.88 $683.73

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.