68% Bear Case

$0.00

23-Week Base Target

$0.01

68% Bull Case

$0.04

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of LRC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
2026-06-21 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03
2026-06-28 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04
2026-07-05 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05
2026-07-12 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06
2026-07-19 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06
2026-07-26 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07
2026-08-02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08
2026-08-09 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09
2026-08-16 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.10
2026-08-23 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.10
2026-08-30 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.11
2026-09-06 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12
2026-09-13 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.14
2026-09-20 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15
2026-09-27 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.16
2026-10-04 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.18
2026-10-11 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.19
2026-10-18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.21
2026-10-25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.22
2026-11-01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.24
2026-11-08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.26
2026-11-15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.27