68% Bear Case

$0.52

23-Week Base Target

$1.64

68% Bull Case

$4.88

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 1.16 1.37 1.61 1.89 2.23 2.61 3.07
2026-06-21 0.86 1.14 1.48 1.93 2.52 3.24 4.21
2026-06-28 0.70 1.00 1.42 2.01 2.83 3.94 5.52
2026-07-05 0.56 0.87 1.32 2.01 3.03 4.48 6.70
2026-07-12 0.45 0.74 1.20 1.94 3.11 4.86 7.68
2026-07-19 0.36 0.64 1.09 1.87 3.15 5.17 8.58
2026-07-26 0.31 0.58 1.04 1.87 3.30 5.67 9.82
2026-08-02 0.27 0.53 0.99 1.87 3.46 6.17 11.12
2026-08-09 0.23 0.48 0.94 1.84 3.55 6.58 12.30
2026-08-16 0.19 0.42 0.85 1.75 3.51 6.75 13.09
2026-08-23 0.17 0.38 0.81 1.72 3.58 7.11 14.25
2026-08-30 0.15 0.35 0.77 1.71 3.68 7.55 15.59
2026-09-06 0.14 0.34 0.78 1.80 4.00 8.44 17.94
2026-09-13 0.13 0.32 0.78 1.84 4.23 9.20 20.11
2026-09-20 0.12 0.32 0.78 1.92 4.54 10.13 22.74
2026-09-27 0.11 0.29 0.76 1.92 4.68 10.74 24.74
2026-10-04 0.09 0.27 0.71 1.85 4.66 11.01 26.05
2026-10-11 0.08 0.24 0.66 1.78 4.62 11.20 27.20
2026-10-18 0.07 0.22 0.64 1.78 4.75 11.81 29.36
2026-10-25 0.06 0.21 0.62 1.79 4.89 12.44 31.65
2026-11-01 0.06 0.20 0.59 1.76 4.95 12.89 33.55
2026-11-08 0.05 0.17 0.55 1.67 4.84 12.93 34.44
2026-11-15 0.04 0.16 0.52 1.64 4.88 13.33 36.27