68% Bear Case

$0.03

23-Week Base Target

$0.08

68% Bull Case

$0.22

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of HBAR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.13
2026-06-21 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.16
2026-06-28 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.20
2026-07-05 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.17 0.25
2026-07-12 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.14 0.20 0.30
2026-07-19 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.14 0.22 0.34
2026-07-26 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.24 0.39
2026-08-02 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.15 0.25 0.42
2026-08-09 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.16 0.27 0.49
2026-08-16 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.16 0.28 0.52
2026-08-23 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.16 0.29 0.56
2026-08-30 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.30 0.60
2026-09-06 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.17 0.33 0.67
2026-09-13 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.18 0.36 0.75
2026-09-20 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.19 0.39 0.84
2026-09-27 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.19 0.41 0.92
2026-10-04 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.20 0.45 1.04
2026-10-11 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.21 0.47 1.12
2026-10-18 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.21 0.50 1.21
2026-10-25 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.21 0.51 1.27
2026-11-01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.22 0.55 1.40
2026-11-08 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.22 0.55 1.43
2026-11-15 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.22 0.56 1.50