68% Bear Case

$0.28

23-Week Base Target

$0.86

68% Bull Case

$2.24

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of FTM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.44 0.51 0.60 0.69 0.80 0.92 1.06
2025-01-26 0.32 0.43 0.55 0.71 0.90 1.13 1.42
2025-02-02 0.25 0.37 0.51 0.72 0.98 1.32 1.77
2025-02-09 0.20 0.32 0.48 0.72 1.05 1.49 2.11
2025-02-16 0.17 0.29 0.47 0.74 1.14 1.69 2.49
2025-02-23 0.14 0.26 0.45 0.75 1.20 1.86 2.85
2025-03-02 0.11 0.22 0.41 0.72 1.22 1.95 3.09
2025-03-09 0.10 0.21 0.40 0.74 1.30 2.14 3.49
2025-03-16 0.08 0.19 0.39 0.75 1.36 2.32 3.88
2025-03-23 0.08 0.19 0.39 0.79 1.47 2.57 4.40
2025-03-30 0.07 0.17 0.38 0.78 1.51 2.71 4.74
2025-04-06 0.06 0.15 0.36 0.77 1.54 2.83 5.06
2025-04-13 0.05 0.14 0.34 0.76 1.57 2.96 5.41
2025-04-20 0.04 0.13 0.34 0.78 1.65 3.17 5.90
2025-04-27 0.04 0.12 0.33 0.79 1.71 3.37 6.38
2025-05-04 0.03 0.12 0.32 0.79 1.77 3.55 6.85
2025-05-11 0.03 0.11 0.32 0.82 1.86 3.79 7.43
2025-05-18 0.03 0.10 0.31 0.82 1.92 3.99 7.94
2025-05-25 0.02 0.09 0.29 0.79 1.90 4.05 8.20
2025-06-01 0.02 0.09 0.29 0.81 1.99 4.30 8.83
2025-06-08 0.02 0.08 0.29 0.82 2.06 4.52 9.40
2025-06-15 0.02 0.08 0.29 0.87 2.20 4.88 10.25
2025-06-22 0.01 0.08 0.28 0.86 2.24 5.04 10.72