68% Bear Case

$2.17

23-Week Base Target

$3.94

68% Bull Case

$7.37

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 3.78 4.20 4.66 5.18 5.77 6.41 7.16
2026-06-21 3.22 3.80 4.46 5.27 6.25 7.39 8.82
2026-06-28 2.79 3.43 4.19 5.16 6.39 7.89 9.88
2026-07-05 2.56 3.25 4.11 5.25 6.74 8.65 11.27
2026-07-12 2.31 3.01 3.91 5.15 6.83 9.04 12.20
2026-07-19 2.08 2.78 3.71 5.01 6.83 9.31 12.97
2026-07-26 1.92 2.63 3.58 4.96 6.94 9.71 13.93
2026-08-02 1.77 2.48 3.44 4.88 6.99 10.03 14.79
2026-08-09 1.65 2.34 3.32 4.81 7.05 10.35 15.66
2026-08-16 1.50 2.18 3.14 4.64 6.94 10.40 16.12
2026-08-23 1.36 1.99 2.92 4.38 6.68 10.22 16.18
2026-08-30 1.27 1.89 2.82 4.31 6.70 10.44 16.91
2026-09-06 1.29 1.96 2.97 4.64 7.38 11.79 19.63
2026-09-13 1.24 1.92 2.97 4.72 7.67 12.52 21.37
2026-09-20 1.16 1.82 2.86 4.63 7.64 12.73 22.21
2026-09-27 1.12 1.79 2.85 4.70 7.93 13.47 24.05
2026-10-04 1.06 1.71 2.76 4.62 7.91 13.68 24.96
2026-10-11 0.99 1.62 2.65 4.49 7.82 13.77 25.61
2026-10-18 0.94 1.56 2.58 4.44 7.87 14.08 26.73
2026-10-25 0.89 1.49 2.50 4.37 7.86 14.31 27.70
2026-11-01 0.84 1.43 2.43 4.31 7.87 14.56 28.71
2026-11-08 0.79 1.35 2.32 4.16 7.69 14.44 28.97
2026-11-15 0.72 1.25 2.17 3.94 7.37 14.01 28.54