Coinbase price forecast: what the model says

COIN SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$137.52

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$122.02

Bear 68%

$39.37

Bull 68%

$227.21

68% Range Width

153.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $94.25 $107.45 $120.57 $134.53 $148.94 $163.33 $178.77
2026-11-29 $73.60 $93.12 $113.03 $134.70 $157.44 $180.51 $205.55
2026-12-06 $61.30 $85.61 $111.02 $139.13 $169.05 $199.68 $233.21
2026-12-13 $50.99 $78.94 $108.84 $142.43 $178.56 $215.85 $256.92
2026-12-20 $40.22 $70.61 $104.01 $142.12 $183.54 $226.62 $274.33
2026-12-27 $29.87 $61.68 $97.78 $139.66 $185.68 $233.87 $287.52
2027-01-03 $20.60 $52.97 $91.15 $136.26 $186.33 $239.13 $298.21
2027-01-10 $11.20 $42.62 $81.93 $129.45 $182.86 $239.62 $303.45
2027-01-17 $4.74 $34.61 $74.88 $124.69 $181.32 $241.89 $310.33
2027-01-24 $0.9865 $28.83 $70.11 $122.24 $182.11 $246.49 $319.50
2027-01-31 N/A $26.66 $69.70 $124.74 $188.28 $256.82 $334.69
2027-02-07 N/A $25.02 $69.82 $127.73 $194.89 $267.52 $350.15
2027-02-14 N/A $21.12 $66.78 $126.97 $197.32 $273.71 $360.84
2027-02-21 N/A $18.53 $65.32 $128.01 $201.71 $281.99 $373.73
2027-02-28 N/A $18.17 $66.96 $132.74 $210.26 $294.78 $391.43
2027-03-07 N/A $17.16 $67.57 $136.14 $217.20 $305.73 $407.06
2027-03-14 N/A $14.35 $65.28 $135.89 $219.88 $311.88 $417.39
2027-03-21 N/A $10.74 $61.38 $133.50 $219.98 $315.10 $424.44
2027-03-28 N/A $7.11 $56.84 $130.14 $218.87 $316.88 $429.82
2027-04-04 N/A $2.85 $49.87 $123.43 $213.71 $314.03 $430.05
2027-04-11 N/A $0.4311 $44.65 $118.74 $210.78 $313.59 $432.83
2027-04-18 N/A N/A $41.27 $116.33 $210.46 $316.00 $438.68
2027-04-25 N/A N/A $41.55 $118.79 $215.87 $324.83 $451.53
2027-05-02 N/A N/A $42.22 $121.74 $221.83 $334.23 $464.97
2027-05-09 N/A N/A $40.14 $120.99 $223.47 $338.86 $473.28
2027-05-16 N/A N/A $39.37 $122.02 $227.21 $345.86 $484.19

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.