Constellation Energy price forecast: what the model says

CEG SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$272.84

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$321.28

Bear 68%

$232.16

Bull 68%

$427.65

68% Range Width

60.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $240.50 $253.35 $266.02 $279.45 $293.26 $307.05 $321.83
2026-11-29 $221.99 $242.01 $262.15 $283.87 $306.61 $329.67 $354.78
2026-12-06 $206.35 $230.94 $256.03 $283.45 $312.52 $342.32 $375.14
2026-12-13 $196.14 $224.39 $253.55 $285.77 $320.26 $355.95 $395.57
2026-12-20 $185.95 $217.07 $249.55 $285.79 $324.92 $365.74 $411.37
2026-12-27 $179.12 $212.89 $248.46 $288.49 $332.05 $377.78 $429.22
2027-01-03 $171.69 $207.64 $245.86 $289.21 $336.71 $386.90 $443.66
2027-01-10 $163.67 $201.37 $241.82 $288.06 $339.08 $393.29 $454.94
2027-01-17 $157.90 $197.35 $240.04 $289.17 $343.71 $401.98 $468.54
2027-01-24 $152.38 $193.40 $238.14 $289.97 $347.84 $409.97 $481.24
2027-01-31 $148.78 $191.47 $238.35 $293.00 $354.32 $420.44 $496.57
2027-02-07 $146.08 $190.43 $239.47 $296.94 $361.73 $431.86 $512.88
2027-02-14 $141.14 $186.80 $237.67 $297.66 $365.65 $439.57 $525.30
2027-02-21 $138.88 $186.21 $239.30 $302.24 $373.89 $452.08 $543.05
2027-02-28 $133.71 $182.03 $236.65 $301.80 $376.35 $458.05 $553.45
2027-03-07 $130.56 $180.14 $236.55 $304.21 $381.96 $467.48 $567.64
2027-03-14 $126.17 $176.63 $234.47 $304.23 $384.77 $473.70 $578.19
2027-03-21 $123.63 $175.28 $234.84 $307.03 $390.72 $483.40 $592.60
2027-03-28 $120.05 $172.54 $233.50 $307.77 $394.23 $490.31 $603.83
2027-04-04 $115.54 $168.57 $230.59 $306.58 $395.45 $494.56 $612.02
2027-04-11 $112.53 $166.36 $229.72 $307.73 $399.32 $501.78 $623.53
2027-04-18 $109.48 $164.01 $228.62 $308.56 $402.77 $508.49 $634.41
2027-04-25 $107.80 $163.34 $229.50 $311.70 $408.88 $518.21 $648.72
2027-05-02 $106.71 $163.37 $231.20 $315.79 $416.08 $529.17 $664.42
2027-05-09 $103.70 $160.98 $230.02 $316.53 $419.50 $535.96 $675.57
2027-05-16 $102.81 $161.30 $232.16 $321.28 $427.65 $548.22 $693.04

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.