68% Bear Case

$102.05

23-Week Base Target

$197.09

68% Bull Case

$403.76

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 152.00 169.52 188.45 210.49 235.46 262.94 295.53
2026-06-21 128.14 152.76 181.43 217.46 261.74 314.65 383.10
2026-06-28 111.61 139.13 172.85 217.50 275.57 349.13 450.38
2026-07-05 98.02 126.56 162.95 213.22 281.62 372.52 504.25
2026-07-12 87.71 116.66 154.86 209.57 287.00 394.27 556.96
2026-07-19 81.96 112.03 152.96 213.58 302.60 430.87 634.03
2026-07-26 75.92 106.29 148.77 213.62 312.02 458.93 700.98
2026-08-02 70.22 100.45 143.80 211.78 318.08 482.05 762.28
2026-08-09 65.67 95.85 140.13 211.37 325.99 508.36 831.20
2026-08-16 60.87 90.45 134.78 207.75 328.24 525.47 886.13
2026-08-23 56.78 85.83 130.21 204.87 331.23 543.79 944.81
2026-08-30 52.12 79.95 123.21 197.41 325.76 546.95 976.12
2026-09-06 50.47 78.79 123.72 202.55 342.50 590.84 1089.27
2026-09-13 49.22 78.16 125.03 209.14 362.41 642.45 1224.14
2026-09-20 46.83 75.50 122.73 209.18 370.38 672.59 1319.79
2026-09-27 43.93 71.75 118.32 205.08 370.19 687.00 1384.49
2026-10-04 41.37 68.44 114.43 201.59 370.77 702.85 1454.04
2026-10-11 40.20 67.45 114.52 205.43 385.87 749.22 1596.77
2026-10-18 38.53 65.46 112.68 205.46 393.36 780.58 1709.55
2026-10-25 36.71 63.11 110.03 203.70 396.99 804.08 1806.92
2026-11-01 35.22 61.26 108.16 203.31 403.39 834.09 1924.00
2026-11-08 33.42 58.73 104.88 199.85 402.94 848.84 2005.06
2026-11-15 31.84 56.51 102.05 197.09 403.76 866.51 2095.96