BCH/BTC Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-06-12 02:17 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

₿ 0.00229855

23-Week Base Target

₿ 0.00293499

68% Bull Target

₿ 0.00387158

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of BCH's valuation against Bitcoin (BTC) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into BTC.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against BTC.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (BTC)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-06-21 ₿ 0.00280619 ₿ 0.00291924 ₿ 0.00303398 ₿ 0.00315929 ₿ 0.00329240 ₿ 0.00342974 ₿ 0.00358234
2026-06-28 ₿ 0.00261163 ₿ 0.00278443 ₿ 0.00296634 ₿ 0.00317271 ₿ 0.00340106 ₿ 0.00364683 ₿ 0.00393245
2026-07-05 ₿ 0.00245687 ₿ 0.00266345 ₿ 0.00288642 ₿ 0.00314622 ₿ 0.00344217 ₿ 0.00377071 ₿ 0.00416563
2026-07-12 ₿ 0.00235260 ₿ 0.00258435 ₿ 0.00283953 ₿ 0.00314337 ₿ 0.00349790 ₿ 0.00390183 ₿ 0.00440163
2026-07-19 ₿ 0.00225806 ₿ 0.00250752 ₿ 0.00278678 ₿ 0.00312534 ₿ 0.00352853 ₿ 0.00399825 ₿ 0.00459435
2026-07-26 ₿ 0.00221522 ₿ 0.00248549 ₿ 0.00279285 ₿ 0.00317208 ₿ 0.00363279 ₿ 0.00418160 ₿ 0.00489609
2026-08-02 ₿ 0.00214884 ₿ 0.00243158 ₿ 0.00275735 ₿ 0.00316523 ₿ 0.00366918 ₿ 0.00428099 ₿ 0.00509540
2026-08-09 ₿ 0.00209353 ₿ 0.00238751 ₿ 0.00273033 ₿ 0.00316543 ₿ 0.00371157 ₿ 0.00438667 ₿ 0.00530470
2026-08-16 ₿ 0.00202055 ₿ 0.00231898 ₿ 0.00267041 ₿ 0.00312149 ₿ 0.00369518 ₿ 0.00441516 ₿ 0.00541219
2026-08-23 ₿ 0.00195603 ₿ 0.00225807 ₿ 0.00261701 ₿ 0.00308254 ₿ 0.00368196 ₿ 0.00444506 ₿ 0.00552027
2026-08-30 ₿ 0.00191018 ₿ 0.00221814 ₿ 0.00258748 ₿ 0.00307160 ₿ 0.00370288 ₿ 0.00451850 ₿ 0.00568873
2026-09-06 ₿ 0.00183827 ₿ 0.00214376 ₿ 0.00251260 ₿ 0.00299982 ₿ 0.00364107 ₿ 0.00447872 ₿ 0.00569698
2026-09-13 ₿ 0.00180702 ₿ 0.00211936 ₿ 0.00249986 ₿ 0.00300776 ₿ 0.00368470 ₿ 0.00458236 ₿ 0.00591260
2026-09-20 ₿ 0.00178341 ₿ 0.00210371 ₿ 0.00249745 ₿ 0.00302864 ₿ 0.00374582 ₿ 0.00471171 ₿ 0.00617142
2026-09-27 ₿ 0.00174139 ₿ 0.00206345 ₿ 0.00246217 ₿ 0.00300465 ₿ 0.00374467 ₿ 0.00475386 ₿ 0.00630360
2026-10-04 ₿ 0.00171107 ₿ 0.00203712 ₿ 0.00244380 ₿ 0.00300205 ₿ 0.00377199 ₿ 0.00483609 ₿ 0.00649859
2026-10-11 ₿ 0.00167639 ₿ 0.00200418 ₿ 0.00241576 ₿ 0.00298522 ₿ 0.00377836 ₿ 0.00488786 ₿ 0.00664880
2026-10-18 ₿ 0.00166862 ₿ 0.00200561 ₿ 0.00243235 ₿ 0.00302888 ₿ 0.00387041 ₿ 0.00506641 ₿ 0.00700476
2026-10-25 ₿ 0.00164107 ₿ 0.00198048 ₿ 0.00241306 ₿ 0.00302248 ₿ 0.00389066 ₿ 0.00513973 ₿ 0.00719741
2026-11-01 ₿ 0.00161744 ₿ 0.00195984 ₿ 0.00239905 ₿ 0.00302267 ₿ 0.00391988 ₿ 0.00522690 ₿ 0.00741643
2026-11-08 ₿ 0.00157888 ₿ 0.00191863 ₿ 0.00235646 ₿ 0.00298162 ₿ 0.00388751 ₿ 0.00521917 ₿ 0.00747762
2026-11-15 ₿ 0.00154369 ₿ 0.00188116 ₿ 0.00231800 ₿ 0.00294522 ₿ 0.00386051 ₿ 0.00521815 ₿ 0.00754913
2026-11-22 ₿ 0.00151978 ₿ 0.00185817 ₿ 0.00229855 ₿ 0.00293499 ₿ 0.00387158 ₿ 0.00527582 ₿ 0.00772286