68% Bear Case

$1.01

23-Week Base Target

$1.71

68% Bull Case

$3.03

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of ATOM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 1.37 1.50 1.64 1.79 1.96 2.14 2.36
2026-06-21 1.21 1.38 1.58 1.82 2.10 2.43 2.83
2026-06-28 1.09 1.30 1.54 1.84 2.22 2.68 3.27
2026-07-05 1.01 1.23 1.50 1.86 2.32 2.89 3.68
2026-07-12 0.93 1.17 1.46 1.86 2.39 3.08 4.07
2026-07-19 0.85 1.09 1.39 1.82 2.39 3.17 4.32
2026-07-26 0.79 1.03 1.35 1.79 2.42 3.29 4.62
2026-08-02 0.75 0.99 1.32 1.79 2.47 3.45 4.98
2026-08-09 0.72 0.97 1.31 1.82 2.57 3.67 5.45
2026-08-16 0.69 0.94 1.28 1.81 2.61 3.81 5.81
2026-08-23 0.64 0.89 1.24 1.78 2.61 3.88 6.06
2026-08-30 0.60 0.84 1.18 1.72 2.56 3.88 6.19
2026-09-06 0.58 0.82 1.17 1.72 2.61 4.04 6.62
2026-09-13 0.56 0.80 1.16 1.75 2.71 4.28 7.19
2026-09-20 0.54 0.79 1.16 1.77 2.79 4.51 7.78
2026-09-27 0.53 0.77 1.15 1.78 2.86 4.71 8.33
2026-10-04 0.51 0.76 1.14 1.79 2.91 4.89 8.85
2026-10-11 0.48 0.72 1.10 1.74 2.89 4.92 9.09
2026-10-18 0.46 0.70 1.07 1.72 2.89 5.01 9.46
2026-10-25 0.45 0.68 1.06 1.72 2.93 5.17 9.97
2026-11-01 0.44 0.68 1.06 1.75 3.03 5.44 10.76
2026-11-08 0.42 0.66 1.04 1.74 3.05 5.58 11.26
2026-11-15 0.40 0.63 1.01 1.71 3.03 5.62 11.57