Astera Labs price forecast: what the model says

ALAB SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$218.82

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$193.59

Bear 68%

$68.12

Bull 68%

$648.82

68% Range Width

300.0%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $144.66 $161.63 $180.01 $201.46 $225.85 $252.77 $284.79
2026-11-29 $119.09 $140.91 $166.15 $197.62 $235.99 $281.50 $339.88
2026-12-06 $100.21 $124.61 $154.47 $193.96 $245.24 $310.17 $399.49
2026-12-13 $84.67 $110.11 $142.86 $188.61 $251.61 $336.46 $461.28
2026-12-20 $77.49 $105.30 $142.95 $198.48 $279.65 $396.12 $579.88
2026-12-27 $71.40 $101.12 $143.35 $208.95 $310.56 $465.81 $728.57
2027-01-03 $63.57 $93.44 $137.75 $209.95 $327.91 $519.03 $864.85
2027-01-10 $53.49 $81.12 $123.64 $195.78 $319.24 $529.79 $934.02
2027-01-17 $47.05 $73.59 $115.92 $190.76 $324.96 $566.17 $1,058.60
2027-01-24 $42.84 $69.08 $112.48 $192.41 $342.71 $627.82 $1,248.38
2027-01-31 $39.06 $64.82 $108.90 $193.28 $359.35 $691.24 $1,460.62
2027-02-07 $35.75 $60.95 $105.46 $193.90 $375.74 $758.14 $1,701.50
2027-02-14 $31.20 $54.53 $96.99 $184.37 $371.64 $785.15 $1,868.98
2027-02-21 $28.58 $51.33 $94.10 $185.54 $390.75 $869.37 $2,213.20
2027-02-28 $26.19 $48.26 $91.06 $185.96 $408.69 $956.75 $2,604.71
2027-03-07 $23.84 $44.98 $87.17 $183.98 $420.92 $1,034.48 $3,005.75
2027-03-14 $23.07 $44.73 $89.45 $196.33 $471.39 $1,229.07 $3,870.33
2027-03-21 $22.32 $44.46 $91.68 $209.09 $526.70 $1,457.48 $4,984.39
2027-03-28 $20.88 $42.53 $90.01 $212.12 $556.89 $1,623.41 $5,974.99
2027-04-04 $18.52 $38.33 $82.62 $199.34 $539.25 $1,633.00 $6,346.82
2027-04-11 $17.00 $35.82 $78.86 $195.46 $547.33 $1,732.54 $7,180.39
2027-04-18 $16.03 $34.46 $77.62 $198.19 $576.72 $1,918.98 $8,559.01
2027-04-25 $15.10 $33.06 $76.12 $199.95 $603.78 $2,108.96 $10,114.83
2027-05-02 $14.23 $31.71 $74.57 $201.31 $630.14 $2,308.72 $11,906.08
2027-05-09 $12.86 $29.06 $69.51 $191.91 $618.82 $2,359.28 $12,936.28
2027-05-16 $12.11 $27.87 $68.12 $193.59 $648.82 $2,606.47 $15,510.62

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.