XRP against its 20-week moving average: risk level

XRP Risk Matrix

$1.0984 | Risk: 0.22

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

📈 XRP Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $0.6662
Level 0.05 $0.7649
Level 0.10 $0.8636
Level 0.15 $0.9623
Level 0.20 $1.0610
Level 0.25 $1.1597
Level 0.30 $1.2584
Level 0.35 $1.3571
Level 0.40 $1.4558
Level 0.45 $1.5546
Level 0.50 $1.6533
Level 0.55 $1.7520
Level 0.60 $1.8507
Level 0.65 $1.9494
Level 0.70 $2.0481
Level 0.75 $2.1468
Level 0.80 $2.2455
Level 0.85 $2.3442
Level 0.90 $2.4429
Level 0.95 $2.5416
Level 1.00 $2.6403

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes XRP's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what XRP's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.