Stellar against its 20-week moving average: risk level

XLM Risk Matrix

$0.1481 | Risk: 0.20

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 XLM Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $0.0815
Level 0.05 $0.0982
Level 0.10 $0.1150
Level 0.15 $0.1317
Level 0.20 $0.1484
Level 0.25 $0.1652
Level 0.30 $0.1819
Level 0.35 $0.1986
Level 0.40 $0.2154
Level 0.45 $0.2321
Level 0.50 $0.2489
Level 0.55 $0.2656
Level 0.60 $0.2823
Level 0.65 $0.2991
Level 0.70 $0.3158
Level 0.75 $0.3325
Level 0.80 $0.3493
Level 0.85 $0.3660
Level 0.90 $0.3828
Level 0.95 $0.3995
Level 1.00 $0.4162

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes XLM's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what XLM's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.