SPY Macro Risk Analysis Spot: $762.60

S.O.T.A Risk Methodology

This plot models the historical compounding trajectory of SPY on a logarithmic scale, plotting a degree-1 linear regression fair-value trendline with standard deviation extremities.

Statistical Upgrades (Z-Score)

Basic models evaluate price deviation against static all-time maximums (e.g., the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble for QQQ or 2008 Financial Crisis for SPY). This deeply flaws the output by compressing modern market activity.

This upgraded engine utilizes a Rolling Z-Score passed through a Sigmoid activation function. This frames "High Risk (1.0)" or "Low Risk (0.0)" relative to the exact macro volatility of the current business cycle, not decades-old anomalies.

Risk Table Interpolation

The matrix on the right linearly maps the 0-1 risk scale to the absolute dollar distance between the Capitulation and Peak Euphoria bounds. A risk level of 0 represents an absolute crisis floor, while 1.0 represents macro blow-off euphoria.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.