Capital Tier Color Code
Measures the 23-week projected compounding yield of holding the altcoin denominated strictly in the sound money anchor, either Alt/BTC or Alt/ETH. A negative percentage indicates destructive opportunity cost compared with holding the base anchor directly.
A signed oscillator from 0.00 to 1.00 measuring local stretch against the 20-week, 100-week, and 200-week simple moving averages. Lower readings imply the pair is below its SMA gravity and closer to accumulation/discount territory; higher readings imply above-SMA overextension versus the denominator.
A pressure score using distance from moving-average gravity and projected momentum. It is directional: after a major bleed, mean reversion can be favorable for the numerator asset; after a major rally, mean reversion can be unfavorable because snapback would likely pull the pair lower.
Each pair sits on one of three orbits set by its composite risk as printed: inner below 0.33, middle 0.33–0.66, outer 0.66 and up. Within an orbit the pairs are spaced evenly in order of risk. The orbit should be read as elevated denominator-relative risk/stretch, not as proof that the numerator asset has structurally decoupled from BTC or ETH.
Trigger: projected return ≥ +5% and composite risk ≤ 0.45. The pair is structurally discounted relative to its moving-average gravity and is projected to gain purchasing power against the denominator.
Trigger: no extreme accretive, overextended, lagging, or bleed condition. The pair is drifting near cross-rate parity with no strong capital migration signal.
Trigger: projected return below 0% without the high-risk bleed condition. The pair is expected to underperform the denominator, but the risk structure is not severe enough to classify as a structural capital sink.
Trigger: projected return ≥ +10% and composite risk ≥ 0.75. The pair is still flashing strong upside momentum, but the risk stretch is elevated enough to warn of unstable markup conditions.
Trigger: projected return ≤ -5% and composite risk ≥ 0.60. The pair is in destructive opportunity-cost territory and is projected to leak value back into BTC or ETH.
BTC and ETH are rendered as separate gravity wells for relative pairs. Bubbles orbit the denominator they are priced against. The orbit a pair sits on answers: “how stretched is this cross-rate versus its denominator gravity?” It does not answer: “has this asset decoupled?” A far-out bubble is therefore an elevated-risk or elevated-pressure read against BTC or ETH, while the color explains the capital tier and the bubble size emphasizes the blend of mean-reversion probability and composite risk.