THORChain against its 20-week moving average: risk level

RUNE Risk Matrix

$0.5957 | Risk: 0.35

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 RUNE Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.2976
Level 0.05 $-0.1688
Level 0.10 $-0.0399
Level 0.15 $0.0890
Level 0.20 $0.2179
Level 0.25 $0.3468
Level 0.30 $0.4756
Level 0.35 $0.6045
Level 0.40 $0.7334
Level 0.45 $0.8623
Level 0.50 $0.9912
Level 0.55 $1.1200
Level 0.60 $1.2489
Level 0.65 $1.3778
Level 0.70 $1.5067
Level 0.75 $1.6355
Level 0.80 $1.7644
Level 0.85 $1.8933
Level 0.90 $2.0222
Level 0.95 $2.1511
Level 1.00 $2.2799

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes RUNE's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what RUNE's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.