IOTA Risk Matrix

$0.0447 | Risk: 0.35

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:55 UTC

📈 IOTA Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $0.0105
Level 0.05 $0.0154
Level 0.10 $0.0202
Level 0.15 $0.0250
Level 0.20 $0.0298
Level 0.25 $0.0347
Level 0.30 $0.0395
Level 0.35 $0.0443
Level 0.40 $0.0492
Level 0.45 $0.0540
Level 0.50 $0.0588
Level 0.55 $0.0636
Level 0.60 $0.0685
Level 0.65 $0.0733
Level 0.70 $0.0781
Level 0.75 $0.0829
Level 0.80 $0.0878
Level 0.85 $0.0926
Level 0.90 $0.0974
Level 0.95 $0.1022
Level 1.00 $0.1071

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes IOTA's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what IOTA's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.