Bitcoin Cycle History
The published record, mined from 696 daily site snapshots — what the models said on the day, not what they say in hindsight. Updated 2026-09-20.
Between 2024-06-18 and 2026-09-18 the site published 696 daily BTC readings of the DCA regression model. The cycle high it recorded was $124,685 on 2025-10-06, filed in risk band 0.6-0.7; the hottest banding came on 2024-11-07, 0.7-0.8 at $76,172. Today's reading sits at $80,899 in band 0.3-0.4. The regression's own fair-value estimate moved from $49,443 to $76,594 across the record - the refit history no live page can show.
The cycle as it was called
Each dot is one day's close as the site published it, tinted by the risk band the DCA regression model filed it in that day. The dashed line is the fair value the regression asserted at the time — the model is refit as data arrives, so today's page cannot reconstruct it. Numbered flags mark the milestones tabled below.
The oscillator's longer memory
The Peak/Valley Risk Oscillator's leading score (BTC+ETH blend) as today's model recomputes it back to 2021 — the backbone the daily readings above sit on.
Milestones the data itself picks out
| # | Date | What the record shows | BTC close |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024-08-05 | Cycle-low close, published in risk band 0.2-0.3 | $50,999 |
| 2 | 2024-09-26 | Market oscillator moved from Low Risk to Moderate Risk | $63,587 |
| 3 | 2024-09-30 | Market oscillator moved from Moderate Risk to Low Risk | $63,605 |
| 4 | 2024-10-18 | Market oscillator moved from Low Risk to Moderate Risk | $67,188 |
| 5 | 2024-10-25 | Market oscillator moved from Moderate Risk to Low Risk | $66,317 |
| 6 | 2024-10-28 | Market oscillator moved from Low Risk to High Risk | $66,317 |
| 7 | 2024-11-07 | Hottest published banding: 0.7-0.8 | $76,172 |
| 8 | 2024-11-09 | Market oscillator moved from High Risk to Low Risk | $76,355 |
| 9 | 2024-11-21 | Market oscillator moved from Low Risk to Moderate Risk | $91,034 |
| 10 | 2024-12-06 | Market oscillator moved from Moderate Risk to High Risk | $99,958 |
| 11 | 2024-12-09 | Market oscillator moved from High Risk to Moderate Risk | $99,166 |
| 12 | 2025-02-04 | Market oscillator moved from Moderate Risk to Low Risk | $99,769 |
| 13 | 2025-07-15 | Market oscillator moved from Low Risk to Moderate Risk | $118,361 |
| 14 | 2025-10-06 | Cycle-high close, published in risk band 0.6-0.7 | $124,685 |
| 15 | 2025-10-15 | Market oscillator moved from Moderate Risk to Low Risk | $111,229 |
| 16 | 2026-01-31 | Market oscillator moved from Low Risk to Lowest Risk | $82,960 |
| 17 | 2026-09-04 | Market oscillator moved from Lowest Risk to Moderate Zone | $80,686 |
How this page is built
Every automated refresh since 2024 committed the regenerated report pages to this site's repository, so version history doubles as a daily archive. This page replays that archive: for each day it reopens the BTC DCA regression chart and the Peak/Valley Risk Oscillator exactly as they were published, and reads the day's closing price, risk band, market zone and the regression's own fair-value estimate off the archived chart itself. The DCA model is the one worth archiving: its regression is refit as new data arrives, so what it asserted on a given day cannot be reconstructed from today's page — unlike the TWAP baseline, which is deterministic and needs no archive. Readings are never recomputed from today's data, so later refits cannot rewrite what was said at the time.