AXS Risk Matrix

$1.0197 | Risk: 0.29

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:55 UTC

📈 AXS Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.8257
Level 0.05 $-0.5049
Level 0.10 $-0.1841
Level 0.15 $0.1367
Level 0.20 $0.4576
Level 0.25 $0.7784
Level 0.30 $1.0992
Level 0.35 $1.4200
Level 0.40 $1.7408
Level 0.45 $2.0616
Level 0.50 $2.3824
Level 0.55 $2.7032
Level 0.60 $3.0240
Level 0.65 $3.3448
Level 0.70 $3.6657
Level 0.75 $3.9865
Level 0.80 $4.3073
Level 0.85 $4.6281
Level 0.90 $4.9489
Level 0.95 $5.2697
Level 1.00 $5.5905

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes AXS's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what AXS's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.