XYZ SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$77.47

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$79.34

Bear 68%

$52.69

Bull 68%

$187.14

68% Range Width

169.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $62.75 $66.80 $71.28 $76.66 $83.03 $90.46 $100.01
2026-10-04 $58.33 $63.62 $69.82 $77.81 $88.16 $101.70 $121.95
2026-10-11 $54.54 $60.43 $67.61 $77.32 $90.80 $110.21 $144.01
2026-10-18 $50.89 $56.93 $64.46 $75.00 $90.32 $114.01 $160.96
2026-10-25 $48.32 $54.50 $62.36 $73.68 $90.87 $119.42 $184.89
2026-11-01 $46.58 $52.95 $61.22 $73.47 $92.97 $128.02 $225.63
2026-11-08 $45.30 $51.88 $60.59 $73.87 $96.01 $139.57 $298.75
2026-11-15 $44.66 $51.59 $60.97 $75.77 $101.99 $160.46 $540.53
2026-11-22 $43.43 $50.40 $59.97 $75.39 $103.70 $172.46 $1,144.27
2026-11-29 $42.25 $49.23 $58.90 $74.74 $104.75 $183.56 N/A
2026-12-06 $41.76 $48.96 $59.12 $76.24 $110.50 $215.35 N/A
2026-12-13 $41.19 $48.56 $59.11 $77.31 $115.62 $253.80 N/A
2026-12-20 $40.18 $47.56 $58.23 $76.99 $118.08 $290.51 N/A
2026-12-27 $39.64 $47.20 $58.31 $78.42 $125.42 $394.54 N/A
2027-01-03 $38.76 $46.30 $57.48 $78.06 $128.02 $492.75 N/A
2027-01-10 $37.55 $44.86 $55.73 $75.75 $124.57 $491.73 N/A
2027-01-17 $36.61 $43.81 $54.54 $74.44 $123.80 $548.97 N/A
2027-01-24 $35.97 $43.15 $53.94 $74.25 $126.37 $769.97 N/A
2027-01-31 $35.48 $42.71 $53.67 $74.66 $131.04 $1,890.75 N/A
2027-02-07 $35.31 $42.72 $54.13 $76.61 $141.91 N/A N/A
2027-02-14 $34.73 $42.10 $53.51 $76.23 $144.25 N/A N/A
2027-02-21 $34.14 $41.44 $52.79 $75.56 $145.36 N/A N/A
2027-02-28 $33.94 $41.37 $53.07 $77.10 $156.53 N/A N/A
2027-03-07 $33.68 $41.19 $53.14 $78.20 $166.85 N/A N/A
2027-03-14 $33.13 $40.60 $52.54 $77.87 $171.14 N/A N/A
2027-03-21 $32.87 $40.44 $52.69 $79.34 $187.14 N/A N/A

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.