XLY SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$111.66

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$116.26

Bear 68%

$100.73

Bull 68%

$132.87

68% Range Width

27.6%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $104.41 $106.84 $109.19 $111.64 $114.12 $116.56 $119.12
2026-08-16 $100.96 $104.68 $108.31 $112.11 $115.98 $119.79 $123.84
2026-08-23 $97.90 $102.58 $107.17 $112.01 $116.94 $121.84 $127.05
2026-08-30 $94.65 $100.09 $105.45 $111.12 $116.93 $122.71 $128.89
2026-09-06 $92.49 $98.60 $104.63 $111.03 $117.62 $124.20 $131.25
2026-09-13 $90.87 $97.57 $104.22 $111.28 $118.58 $125.88 $133.73
2026-09-20 $90.01 $97.27 $104.48 $112.18 $120.15 $128.14 $136.76
2026-09-27 $89.07 $96.84 $104.58 $112.86 $121.45 $130.09 $139.41
2026-10-04 $88.00 $96.22 $104.45 $113.26 $122.43 $131.67 $141.66
2026-10-11 $87.44 $96.12 $104.81 $114.15 $123.89 $133.72 $144.37
2026-10-18 $85.99 $95.05 $104.15 $113.95 $124.19 $134.54 $145.78
2026-10-25 $84.51 $93.92 $103.40 $113.63 $124.34 $135.18 $146.98
2026-11-01 $83.35 $93.13 $103.01 $113.69 $124.88 $136.25 $148.64
2026-11-08 $82.61 $92.77 $103.04 $114.17 $125.87 $137.77 $150.75
2026-11-15 $81.41 $91.89 $102.52 $114.07 $126.22 $138.60 $152.13
2026-11-22 $79.60 $90.35 $101.28 $113.18 $125.73 $138.53 $152.55
2026-11-29 $78.51 $89.55 $100.81 $113.09 $126.06 $139.32 $153.86
2026-12-06 $77.74 $89.09 $100.68 $113.34 $126.74 $140.46 $155.53
2026-12-13 $77.54 $89.22 $101.17 $114.25 $128.11 $142.31 $157.92
2026-12-20 $77.19 $89.18 $101.46 $114.93 $129.23 $143.90 $160.04
2026-12-27 $76.63 $88.90 $101.50 $115.34 $130.04 $145.15 $161.80
2027-01-03 $76.50 $89.08 $102.01 $116.24 $131.38 $146.95 $164.12
2027-01-10 $75.49 $88.30 $101.50 $116.04 $131.53 $147.49 $165.12
2027-01-17 $74.41 $87.43 $100.87 $115.71 $131.55 $147.88 $165.94
2027-01-24 $73.61 $86.88 $100.60 $115.76 $131.98 $148.72 $167.25
2027-01-31 $73.18 $86.71 $100.73 $116.26 $132.87 $150.06 $169.08

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.