XLY SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$111.34

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$115.87

Bear 68%

$100.62

Bull 68%

$132.09

68% Range Width

27.2%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $104.38 $106.80 $109.13 $111.56 $114.02 $116.42 $118.96
2026-10-04 $100.82 $104.52 $108.12 $111.88 $115.71 $119.48 $123.47
2026-10-11 $98.71 $103.38 $107.95 $112.74 $117.64 $122.48 $127.63
2026-10-18 $96.13 $101.57 $106.91 $112.54 $118.31 $124.03 $130.14
2026-10-25 $93.80 $99.89 $105.90 $112.25 $118.78 $125.27 $132.21
2026-11-01 $92.21 $98.90 $105.50 $112.51 $119.73 $126.93 $134.65
2026-11-08 $90.97 $98.20 $105.36 $112.98 $120.84 $128.70 $137.14
2026-11-15 $89.32 $97.02 $104.68 $112.84 $121.28 $129.74 $138.84
2026-11-22 $87.15 $95.27 $103.36 $112.00 $120.96 $129.95 $139.66
2026-11-29 $85.70 $94.22 $102.73 $111.85 $121.32 $130.85 $141.14
2026-12-06 $84.58 $93.50 $102.42 $112.00 $121.97 $132.01 $142.88
2026-12-13 $84.11 $93.42 $102.76 $112.80 $123.27 $133.84 $145.29
2026-12-20 $83.49 $93.20 $102.95 $113.46 $124.43 $135.53 $147.56
2026-12-27 $82.69 $92.77 $102.91 $113.86 $125.31 $136.91 $149.51
2027-01-03 $82.35 $92.80 $103.34 $114.74 $126.68 $138.79 $151.96
2027-01-10 $81.12 $91.88 $102.76 $114.54 $126.91 $139.46 $153.14
2027-01-17 $79.85 $90.90 $102.10 $114.25 $127.02 $140.01 $154.17
2027-01-24 $79.10 $90.45 $101.98 $114.51 $127.70 $141.13 $155.80
2027-01-31 $78.54 $90.21 $102.07 $114.98 $128.59 $142.47 $157.64
2027-02-07 $77.51 $89.44 $101.59 $114.84 $128.83 $143.11 $158.74
2027-02-14 $75.92 $88.06 $100.45 $113.99 $128.31 $142.95 $158.99
2027-02-21 $74.94 $87.32 $99.98 $113.84 $128.52 $143.54 $160.02
2027-02-28 $74.23 $86.86 $99.81 $113.99 $129.04 $144.45 $161.38
2027-03-07 $74.08 $87.00 $100.26 $114.81 $130.25 $146.08 $163.49
2027-03-14 $73.79 $86.99 $100.56 $115.47 $131.31 $147.57 $165.47
2027-03-21 $73.30 $86.76 $100.62 $115.87 $132.09 $148.77 $167.13

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.