XLV SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$168.16

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$173.96

Bear 68%

$162.69

Bull 68%

$184.84

68% Range Width

12.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $162.59 $164.72 $166.75 $168.82 $170.88 $172.86 $174.92
2026-10-04 $159.72 $162.84 $165.80 $168.81 $171.79 $174.66 $177.63
2026-10-11 $158.20 $162.03 $165.64 $169.32 $172.95 $176.44 $180.04
2026-10-18 $156.66 $161.11 $165.31 $169.58 $173.78 $177.81 $181.96
2026-10-25 $154.83 $159.84 $164.55 $169.32 $174.02 $178.52 $183.14
2026-11-01 $153.77 $159.27 $164.45 $169.68 $174.83 $179.74 $184.79
2026-11-08 $152.95 $158.91 $164.50 $170.15 $175.69 $180.99 $186.42
2026-11-15 $151.82 $158.22 $164.21 $170.26 $176.18 $181.83 $187.62
2026-11-22 $150.36 $157.18 $163.55 $169.97 $176.26 $182.25 $188.38
2026-11-29 $149.60 $156.80 $163.52 $170.29 $176.91 $183.21 $189.65
2026-12-06 $148.37 $155.95 $163.02 $170.13 $177.07 $183.67 $190.41
2026-12-13 $148.13 $156.05 $163.43 $170.84 $178.07 $184.94 $191.96
2026-12-20 $147.55 $155.84 $163.56 $171.31 $178.85 $186.01 $193.32
2026-12-27 $146.63 $155.30 $163.35 $171.42 $179.28 $186.73 $194.33
2027-01-03 $146.08 $155.10 $163.47 $171.84 $179.99 $187.71 $195.58
2027-01-10 $145.46 $154.81 $163.49 $172.16 $180.59 $188.56 $196.69
2027-01-17 $144.19 $153.90 $162.89 $171.87 $180.58 $188.82 $197.21
2027-01-24 $143.70 $153.72 $163.00 $172.25 $181.22 $189.70 $198.33
2027-01-31 $143.30 $153.64 $163.18 $172.69 $181.92 $190.63 $199.49
2027-02-07 $142.56 $153.21 $163.03 $172.81 $182.29 $191.23 $200.31
2027-02-14 $141.39 $152.36 $162.47 $172.52 $182.25 $191.43 $200.75
2027-02-21 $140.92 $152.18 $162.55 $172.84 $182.81 $192.19 $201.72
2027-02-28 $139.92 $151.49 $162.12 $172.68 $182.88 $192.48 $202.23
2027-03-07 $139.93 $151.75 $162.61 $173.39 $183.79 $193.59 $203.52
2027-03-14 $139.58 $151.70 $162.82 $173.85 $184.49 $194.49 $204.64
2027-03-21 $138.87 $151.30 $162.69 $173.96 $184.84 $195.07 $205.43

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.