XLV SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$165.33

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$173.29

Bear 68%

$160.09

Bull 68%

$185.52

68% Range Width

14.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $160.37 $162.63 $164.76 $166.92 $169.06 $171.11 $173.22
2026-08-16 $156.58 $160.11 $163.41 $166.75 $170.02 $173.13 $176.32
2026-08-23 $153.98 $158.39 $162.49 $166.60 $170.61 $174.42 $178.30
2026-08-30 $151.29 $156.50 $161.32 $166.13 $170.81 $175.22 $179.71
2026-09-06 $150.22 $156.08 $161.49 $166.87 $172.08 $176.99 $181.96
2026-09-13 $148.37 $154.88 $160.85 $166.78 $172.49 $177.86 $183.29
2026-09-20 $147.77 $154.83 $161.28 $167.67 $173.81 $179.56 $185.37
2026-09-27 $147.15 $154.72 $161.63 $168.44 $174.97 $181.08 $187.24
2026-10-04 $145.89 $153.98 $161.34 $168.57 $175.49 $181.95 $188.45
2026-10-11 $144.38 $152.99 $160.79 $168.44 $175.74 $182.54 $189.36
2026-10-18 $143.63 $152.70 $160.89 $168.90 $176.54 $183.63 $190.75
2026-10-25 $142.58 $152.11 $160.70 $169.07 $177.03 $184.41 $191.81
2026-11-01 $142.23 $152.25 $161.25 $170.01 $178.32 $186.02 $193.72
2026-11-08 $140.86 $151.44 $160.91 $170.09 $178.78 $186.82 $194.85
2026-11-15 $139.15 $150.31 $160.24 $169.84 $178.91 $187.28 $195.62
2026-11-22 $137.26 $149.00 $159.40 $169.42 $178.87 $187.56 $196.22
2026-11-29 $136.82 $149.00 $159.77 $170.13 $179.87 $188.83 $197.74
2026-12-06 $135.42 $148.12 $159.31 $170.05 $180.12 $189.36 $198.54
2026-12-13 $135.26 $148.37 $159.89 $170.91 $181.25 $190.72 $200.12
2026-12-20 $135.00 $148.51 $160.35 $171.67 $182.26 $191.96 $201.57
2026-12-27 $133.97 $147.95 $160.16 $171.80 $182.67 $192.62 $202.47
2027-01-03 $132.64 $147.10 $159.70 $171.67 $182.84 $193.04 $203.12
2027-01-10 $132.08 $146.96 $159.87 $172.13 $183.54 $193.95 $204.24
2027-01-17 $131.16 $146.48 $159.73 $172.29 $183.95 $194.59 $205.09
2027-01-24 $131.05 $146.78 $160.36 $173.21 $185.13 $195.99 $206.69
2027-01-31 $129.81 $146.09 $160.09 $173.29 $185.52 $196.64 $207.60

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.