XLU SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$45.60

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$47.67

Bear 68%

$36.18

Bull 68%

$71.32

68% Range Width

73.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $41.37 $42.69 $44.05 $45.55 $47.16 $48.85 $50.75
2026-08-16 $38.94 $40.95 $43.10 $45.58 $48.39 $51.49 $55.22
2026-08-23 $37.33 $39.76 $42.41 $45.58 $49.30 $53.59 $59.01
2026-08-30 $35.84 $38.49 $41.47 $45.10 $49.48 $54.70 $61.59
2026-09-06 $35.02 $37.92 $41.23 $45.35 $50.46 $56.76 $65.44
2026-09-13 $34.34 $37.44 $41.03 $45.60 $51.40 $58.79 $69.40
2026-09-20 $34.00 $37.33 $41.25 $46.33 $52.96 $61.69 $74.87
2026-09-27 $33.50 $36.99 $41.15 $46.63 $53.94 $63.87 $79.55
2026-10-04 $32.84 $36.41 $40.72 $46.48 $54.29 $65.18 $83.03
2026-10-11 $32.24 $35.90 $40.34 $46.35 $54.65 $66.48 $86.67
2026-10-18 $31.85 $35.61 $40.23 $46.56 $55.47 $68.54 $91.86
2026-10-25 $31.41 $35.25 $40.00 $46.59 $56.03 $70.20 $96.63
2026-11-01 $30.72 $34.65 $39.59 $46.56 $56.81 $72.81 $104.91
2026-11-08 $30.02 $34.06 $39.20 $46.60 $57.79 $76.10 $116.34
2026-11-15 $29.37 $33.49 $38.81 $46.60 $58.70 $79.44 $129.73
2026-11-22 $28.60 $32.74 $38.12 $46.10 $58.74 $81.18 $140.22
2026-11-29 $28.17 $32.39 $37.96 $46.36 $60.04 $85.56 $162.00
2026-12-06 $27.77 $32.08 $37.81 $46.62 $61.36 $90.27 $191.01
2026-12-13 $27.56 $32.00 $38.00 $47.39 $63.63 $97.71 $248.21
2026-12-20 $27.22 $31.74 $37.91 $47.70 $65.12 $103.80 $325.01
2026-12-27 $26.77 $31.31 $37.53 $47.54 $65.69 $107.81 $418.01
2027-01-03 $26.36 $30.91 $37.19 $47.40 $66.29 $112.09 $589.72
2027-01-10 $26.07 $30.67 $37.08 $47.63 $67.63 $119.09 $1,349.67
2027-01-17 $25.75 $30.37 $36.86 $47.66 $68.58 $125.33 N/A
2027-01-24 $25.28 $29.93 $36.51 $47.63 $69.79 $134.73 N/A
2027-01-31 $24.82 $29.49 $36.18 $47.67 $71.32 $147.53 N/A

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.