XLU SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$41.57

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$38.68

Bear 68%

$31.01

Bull 68%

$51.59

68% Range Width

53.2%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $37.83 $38.89 $39.97 $41.14 $42.39 $43.68 $45.11
2026-10-04 $35.70 $37.32 $39.03 $40.96 $43.09 $45.40 $48.09
2026-10-11 $34.31 $36.28 $38.39 $40.85 $43.65 $46.78 $50.58
2026-10-18 $33.43 $35.66 $38.11 $41.01 $44.42 $48.33 $53.24
2026-10-25 $32.50 $34.92 $37.60 $40.84 $44.72 $49.28 $55.19
2026-11-01 $31.56 $34.09 $36.94 $40.43 $44.67 $49.76 $56.53
2026-11-08 $30.97 $33.63 $36.66 $40.43 $45.09 $50.81 $58.61
2026-11-15 $30.44 $33.21 $36.40 $40.42 $45.47 $51.79 $60.64
2026-11-22 $29.73 $32.55 $35.83 $40.00 $45.30 $52.03 $61.68
2026-11-29 $29.27 $32.17 $35.57 $39.94 $45.57 $52.86 $63.54
2026-12-06 $28.95 $31.95 $35.49 $40.09 $46.11 $54.04 $65.99
2026-12-13 $28.51 $31.57 $35.20 $39.95 $46.25 $54.68 $67.66
2026-12-20 $27.93 $31.09 $34.87 $39.92 $46.72 $56.07 $71.08
2026-12-27 $27.28 $30.52 $34.46 $39.78 $47.11 $57.48 $74.89
2027-01-03 $26.71 $30.02 $34.10 $39.68 $47.53 $58.97 $79.06
2027-01-10 $26.29 $29.70 $33.94 $39.84 $48.31 $61.03 $84.61
2027-01-17 $25.78 $29.24 $33.57 $39.68 $48.60 $62.35 $89.02
2027-01-24 $25.22 $28.68 $33.06 $39.29 $48.50 $63.02 $92.31
2027-01-31 $24.85 $28.36 $32.85 $39.29 $49.00 $64.71 $98.08
2027-02-07 $24.49 $28.05 $32.63 $39.28 $49.46 $66.38 $104.26
2027-02-14 $24.02 $27.57 $32.16 $38.88 $49.29 $66.89 $107.84
2027-02-21 $23.70 $27.28 $31.94 $38.83 $49.65 $68.41 $114.44
2027-02-28 $23.47 $27.10 $31.86 $38.97 $50.34 $70.61 $123.73
2027-03-07 $23.15 $26.79 $31.60 $38.84 $50.55 $71.92 $130.99
2027-03-14 $22.77 $26.45 $31.34 $38.80 $51.12 $74.41 $145.05
2027-03-21 $22.34 $26.04 $31.01 $38.68 $51.59 $76.95 $162.55

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.