XLP SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$83.69

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$86.06

Bear 68%

$80.22

Bull 68%

$91.79

68% Range Width

13.4%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $81.33 $82.28 $83.19 $84.12 $85.05 $85.95 $86.89
2026-10-04 $79.77 $81.24 $82.64 $84.08 $85.51 $86.89 $88.32
2026-10-11 $79.04 $80.91 $82.69 $84.51 $86.32 $88.06 $89.87
2026-10-18 $78.24 $80.44 $82.54 $84.68 $86.81 $88.86 $90.98
2026-10-25 $77.18 $79.69 $82.06 $84.49 $86.89 $89.21 $91.60
2026-11-01 $76.31 $79.08 $81.70 $84.38 $87.04 $89.59 $92.23
2026-11-08 $75.84 $78.86 $81.71 $84.62 $87.49 $90.26 $93.12
2026-11-15 $75.10 $78.34 $81.41 $84.53 $87.61 $90.58 $93.64
2026-11-22 $74.23 $77.69 $80.96 $84.29 $87.57 $90.73 $93.98
2026-11-29 $73.70 $77.36 $80.82 $84.33 $87.80 $91.13 $94.57
2026-12-06 $73.26 $77.11 $80.75 $84.44 $88.08 $91.58 $95.18
2026-12-13 $72.99 $77.02 $80.82 $84.68 $88.49 $92.14 $95.90
2026-12-20 $72.90 $77.12 $81.09 $85.12 $89.09 $92.89 $96.81
2026-12-27 $72.34 $76.74 $80.88 $85.07 $89.21 $93.16 $97.24
2027-01-03 $72.29 $76.86 $81.15 $85.50 $89.78 $93.88 $98.10
2027-01-10 $72.00 $76.72 $81.17 $85.67 $90.11 $94.35 $98.71
2027-01-17 $71.32 $76.22 $80.82 $85.48 $90.06 $94.44 $98.94
2027-01-24 $70.76 $75.82 $80.57 $85.38 $90.10 $94.61 $99.25
2027-01-31 $70.56 $75.77 $80.66 $85.61 $90.46 $95.10 $99.87
2027-02-07 $70.04 $75.41 $80.44 $85.52 $90.51 $95.28 $100.17
2027-02-14 $69.37 $74.88 $80.06 $85.28 $90.40 $95.29 $100.32
2027-02-21 $69.01 $74.67 $79.97 $85.33 $90.58 $95.58 $100.73
2027-02-28 $68.72 $74.52 $79.95 $85.43 $90.80 $95.93 $101.18
2027-03-07 $68.59 $74.53 $80.08 $85.68 $91.16 $96.39 $101.76
2027-03-14 $68.65 $74.72 $80.39 $86.11 $91.71 $97.05 $102.53
2027-03-21 $68.20 $74.41 $80.22 $86.06 $91.79 $97.24 $102.83

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.