XLP SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$86.21

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$89.09

Bear 68%

$83.29

Bull 68%

$94.75

68% Range Width

12.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $83.82 $84.76 $85.65 $86.56 $87.48 $88.36 $89.28
2026-08-16 $82.65 $84.10 $85.48 $86.89 $88.30 $89.65 $91.06
2026-08-23 $81.41 $83.26 $85.02 $86.82 $88.60 $90.32 $92.11
2026-08-30 $80.16 $82.35 $84.43 $86.56 $88.66 $90.69 $92.79
2026-09-06 $79.40 $81.88 $84.24 $86.65 $89.03 $91.31 $93.68
2026-09-13 $78.80 $81.55 $84.16 $86.81 $89.44 $91.96 $94.57
2026-09-20 $78.34 $81.33 $84.17 $87.05 $89.90 $92.63 $95.45
2026-09-27 $78.13 $81.34 $84.38 $87.47 $90.52 $93.45 $96.47
2026-10-04 $77.47 $80.90 $84.14 $87.43 $90.67 $93.78 $96.99
2026-10-11 $77.33 $80.96 $84.38 $87.85 $91.27 $94.55 $97.93
2026-10-18 $76.95 $80.77 $84.37 $88.01 $91.61 $95.05 $98.59
2026-10-25 $76.24 $80.24 $84.02 $87.84 $91.60 $95.20 $98.90
2026-11-01 $75.64 $79.84 $83.78 $87.78 $91.71 $95.46 $99.33
2026-11-08 $75.37 $79.74 $83.85 $88.01 $92.09 $96.00 $100.02
2026-11-15 $74.76 $79.32 $83.59 $87.91 $92.15 $96.21 $100.37
2026-11-22 $74.00 $78.73 $83.17 $87.65 $92.04 $96.24 $100.55
2026-11-29 $73.62 $78.52 $83.10 $87.73 $92.27 $96.61 $101.05
2026-12-06 $73.35 $78.40 $83.13 $87.90 $92.58 $97.04 $101.62
2026-12-13 $73.16 $78.36 $83.23 $88.13 $92.94 $97.53 $102.23
2026-12-20 $73.18 $78.52 $83.52 $88.55 $93.49 $98.19 $103.01
2026-12-27 $72.71 $78.21 $83.34 $88.51 $93.57 $98.39 $103.34
2027-01-03 $72.76 $78.38 $83.64 $88.93 $94.11 $99.04 $104.09
2027-01-10 $72.53 $78.30 $83.68 $89.09 $94.39 $99.43 $104.60
2027-01-17 $71.95 $77.86 $83.37 $88.92 $94.34 $99.49 $104.77
2027-01-24 $71.49 $77.54 $83.19 $88.86 $94.40 $99.67 $105.07
2027-01-31 $71.33 $77.53 $83.29 $89.09 $94.75 $100.12 $105.63

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.