XLK SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$185.61

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$212.08

Bear 68%

$174.18

Bull 68%

$260.42

68% Range Width

40.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $170.12 $175.66 $181.17 $187.07 $193.20 $199.39 $206.11
2026-10-04 $163.14 $171.27 $179.52 $188.53 $198.08 $207.93 $218.84
2026-10-11 $159.04 $169.04 $179.34 $190.75 $203.05 $215.93 $230.43
2026-10-18 $154.26 $165.61 $177.44 $190.71 $205.20 $220.56 $238.11
2026-10-25 $150.32 $162.78 $175.91 $190.80 $207.23 $224.86 $245.22
2026-11-01 $147.37 $160.84 $175.15 $191.54 $209.82 $229.62 $252.76
2026-11-08 $145.23 $159.63 $175.08 $192.92 $213.01 $234.98 $260.90
2026-11-15 $142.67 $157.84 $174.24 $193.33 $215.02 $238.95 $267.45
2026-11-22 $138.84 $154.50 $171.54 $191.54 $214.42 $239.88 $270.45
2026-11-29 $136.79 $153.09 $170.95 $192.06 $216.40 $243.69 $276.74
2026-12-06 $135.51 $152.49 $171.23 $193.52 $219.41 $248.67 $284.40
2026-12-13 $135.02 $152.75 $172.45 $196.04 $223.65 $255.09 $293.78
2026-12-20 $134.25 $152.71 $173.36 $198.26 $227.62 $261.30 $303.11
2026-12-27 $133.16 $152.27 $173.78 $199.88 $230.88 $266.72 $311.55
2027-01-03 $132.62 $152.43 $174.86 $202.27 $235.06 $273.23 $321.37
2027-01-10 $130.70 $150.91 $173.93 $202.23 $236.29 $276.22 $326.93
2027-01-17 $128.95 $149.56 $173.15 $202.33 $237.66 $279.34 $332.67
2027-01-24 $127.69 $148.75 $172.98 $203.12 $239.85 $283.47 $339.66
2027-01-31 $126.87 $148.44 $173.39 $204.60 $242.87 $288.61 $347.95
2027-02-07 $125.52 $147.46 $172.97 $205.05 $244.60 $292.17 $354.29
2027-02-14 $122.94 $144.95 $170.65 $203.12 $243.36 $292.02 $355.95
2027-02-21 $121.79 $144.14 $170.38 $203.68 $245.19 $295.67 $362.41
2027-02-28 $121.21 $144.02 $170.92 $205.25 $248.26 $300.90 $370.95
2027-03-07 $121.27 $144.66 $172.39 $207.96 $252.79 $307.99 $381.94
2027-03-14 $121.06 $145.01 $173.54 $210.34 $257.00 $314.81 $392.82
2027-03-21 $120.53 $144.95 $174.18 $212.08 $260.42 $320.67 $402.53

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.