XLK SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$172.69

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$191.91

Bear 68%

$158.25

Bull 68%

$234.22

68% Range Width

39.6%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $156.82 $161.68 $166.51 $171.66 $177.00 $182.37 $188.18
2026-08-16 $150.08 $157.32 $164.64 $172.60 $181.00 $189.62 $199.14
2026-08-23 $144.92 $153.81 $162.93 $172.99 $183.78 $195.01 $207.59
2026-08-30 $139.25 $149.29 $159.71 $171.34 $183.96 $197.27 $212.37
2026-09-06 $135.91 $147.00 $158.62 $171.73 $186.12 $201.44 $219.03
2026-09-13 $133.64 $145.69 $158.45 $172.96 $189.04 $206.35 $226.41
2026-09-20 $132.51 $145.52 $159.40 $175.34 $193.16 $212.52 $235.17
2026-09-27 $131.23 $145.09 $160.00 $177.24 $196.69 $217.99 $243.14
2026-10-04 $129.65 $144.24 $160.04 $178.46 $199.40 $222.51 $250.03
2026-10-11 $128.83 $144.18 $160.93 $180.59 $203.10 $228.15 $258.21
2026-10-18 $126.76 $142.64 $160.07 $180.67 $204.43 $231.04 $263.22
2026-10-25 $124.85 $141.22 $159.30 $180.80 $205.75 $233.89 $268.17
2026-11-01 $122.85 $139.69 $158.39 $180.78 $206.93 $236.63 $273.06
2026-11-08 $121.69 $139.09 $158.53 $181.94 $209.47 $240.96 $279.85
2026-11-15 $120.17 $138.02 $158.08 $182.39 $211.15 $244.25 $285.44
2026-11-22 $117.40 $135.44 $155.82 $180.64 $210.18 $244.38 $287.20
2026-11-29 $116.04 $134.47 $155.41 $181.05 $211.75 $247.51 $292.56
2026-12-06 $115.27 $134.18 $155.77 $182.36 $214.38 $251.90 $299.48
2026-12-13 $115.25 $134.77 $157.16 $184.89 $218.49 $258.09 $308.64
2026-12-20 $114.96 $135.01 $158.13 $186.92 $221.98 $263.57 $316.98
2026-12-27 $114.29 $134.78 $158.51 $188.21 $224.59 $267.97 $324.03
2027-01-03 $114.19 $135.21 $159.69 $190.48 $228.39 $273.86 $332.98
2027-01-10 $112.92 $134.21 $159.11 $190.57 $229.50 $276.44 $337.80
2027-01-17 $111.72 $133.27 $158.58 $190.70 $230.65 $279.06 $342.69
2027-01-24 $110.41 $132.20 $157.90 $190.67 $231.64 $281.54 $347.50
2027-01-31 $109.79 $131.96 $158.25 $191.91 $234.22 $286.02 $354.91

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.