XLI SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$182.85

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$199.93

Bear 68%

$176.74

Bull 68%

$226.15

68% Range Width

24.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $172.88 $176.51 $180.07 $183.80 $187.61 $191.39 $195.41
2026-08-16 $167.86 $173.20 $178.47 $184.07 $189.84 $195.61 $201.83
2026-08-23 $164.66 $171.17 $177.66 $184.60 $191.80 $199.07 $206.94
2026-08-30 $160.91 $168.34 $175.78 $183.79 $192.15 $200.64 $209.90
2026-09-06 $158.98 $167.25 $175.57 $184.57 $194.03 $203.68 $214.25
2026-09-13 $157.63 $166.65 $175.78 $185.70 $196.18 $206.92 $218.75
2026-09-20 $156.93 $166.68 $176.58 $187.39 $198.86 $210.66 $223.73
2026-09-27 $156.72 $167.16 $177.81 $189.49 $201.93 $214.79 $229.08
2026-10-04 $155.76 $166.80 $178.11 $190.56 $203.87 $217.68 $233.09
2026-10-11 $154.20 $165.75 $177.63 $190.75 $204.84 $219.50 $235.92
2026-10-18 $152.78 $164.81 $177.23 $191.00 $205.83 $221.32 $238.73
2026-10-25 $151.15 $163.62 $176.53 $190.88 $206.39 $222.66 $240.99
2026-11-01 $149.90 $162.91 $176.42 $191.50 $207.87 $225.10 $244.59
2026-11-08 $148.48 $161.98 $176.06 $191.84 $209.03 $227.18 $247.80
2026-11-15 $147.30 $161.29 $175.92 $192.38 $210.37 $229.44 $251.18
2026-11-22 $145.14 $159.48 $174.55 $191.54 $210.18 $230.00 $252.68
2026-11-29 $144.31 $159.11 $174.70 $192.36 $211.78 $232.51 $256.30
2026-12-06 $143.80 $159.07 $175.21 $193.54 $213.77 $235.43 $260.37
2026-12-13 $143.76 $159.53 $176.25 $195.29 $216.39 $239.04 $265.20
2026-12-20 $144.06 $160.36 $177.68 $197.48 $219.48 $243.16 $270.60
2026-12-27 $143.60 $160.32 $178.16 $198.59 $221.36 $245.96 $274.53
2027-01-03 $142.52 $159.58 $177.83 $198.80 $222.23 $247.60 $277.17
2027-01-10 $141.51 $158.90 $177.56 $199.05 $223.14 $249.29 $279.85
2027-01-17 $140.27 $157.95 $176.96 $198.93 $223.61 $250.49 $281.97
2027-01-24 $139.41 $157.48 $176.98 $199.58 $225.05 $252.87 $285.56
2027-01-31 $138.36 $156.79 $176.74 $199.93 $226.15 $254.88 $288.75

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.