XLI SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$169.10

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$182.02

Bear 68%

$160.79

Bull 68%

$206.11

68% Range Width

24.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $160.27 $163.62 $166.90 $170.34 $173.85 $177.34 $181.05
2026-10-04 $156.26 $161.23 $166.15 $171.38 $176.77 $182.17 $187.99
2026-10-11 $152.99 $159.07 $165.12 $171.60 $178.34 $185.14 $192.52
2026-10-18 $150.33 $157.30 $164.29 $171.81 $179.69 $187.69 $196.43
2026-10-25 $147.52 $155.22 $162.99 $171.40 $180.25 $189.29 $199.21
2026-11-01 $146.15 $154.56 $163.07 $172.34 $182.15 $192.21 $203.32
2026-11-08 $144.48 $153.50 $162.67 $172.70 $183.36 $194.36 $206.54
2026-11-15 $142.75 $152.31 $162.07 $172.80 $184.25 $196.10 $209.30
2026-11-22 $140.22 $150.20 $160.45 $171.75 $183.85 $196.44 $210.51
2026-11-29 $138.81 $149.27 $160.03 $171.94 $184.75 $198.12 $213.13
2026-12-06 $137.96 $148.88 $160.17 $172.70 $186.24 $200.41 $216.38
2026-12-13 $137.42 $148.81 $160.63 $173.79 $188.06 $203.04 $219.99
2026-12-20 $137.28 $149.24 $161.69 $175.62 $190.78 $206.77 $224.91
2026-12-27 $136.50 $148.96 $161.99 $176.61 $192.59 $209.50 $228.77
2027-01-03 $135.23 $148.11 $161.63 $176.86 $193.55 $211.30 $231.58
2027-01-10 $134.00 $147.28 $161.26 $177.07 $194.46 $213.01 $234.30
2027-01-17 $132.35 $145.96 $160.33 $176.64 $194.65 $213.91 $236.09
2027-01-24 $131.80 $145.83 $160.69 $177.62 $196.36 $216.48 $239.72
2027-01-31 $130.85 $145.23 $160.52 $177.99 $197.39 $218.28 $242.50
2027-02-07 $129.74 $144.45 $160.13 $178.09 $198.11 $219.73 $244.86
2027-02-14 $127.82 $142.73 $158.68 $177.00 $197.48 $219.67 $245.54
2027-02-21 $126.87 $142.09 $158.40 $177.20 $198.28 $221.17 $247.95
2027-02-28 $126.37 $141.93 $158.66 $177.99 $199.72 $223.40 $251.17
2027-03-07 $126.14 $142.06 $159.22 $179.11 $201.54 $226.04 $254.86
2027-03-14 $126.28 $142.66 $160.39 $181.00 $204.31 $229.86 $260.00
2027-03-21 $125.81 $142.59 $160.79 $182.02 $206.11 $232.59 $263.94

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.