XLF SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$57.24

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$60.55

Bear 68%

$54.29

Bull 68%

$67.18

68% Range Width

21.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $54.66 $55.66 $56.62 $57.62 $58.63 $59.62 $60.67
2026-08-16 $53.31 $54.86 $56.36 $57.94 $59.53 $61.11 $62.77
2026-08-23 $52.15 $54.08 $55.96 $57.94 $59.96 $61.95 $64.07
2026-08-30 $50.95 $53.18 $55.37 $57.68 $60.03 $62.37 $64.87
2026-09-06 $50.34 $52.85 $55.31 $57.91 $60.58 $63.23 $66.07
2026-09-13 $49.81 $52.55 $55.26 $58.13 $61.08 $64.01 $67.16
2026-09-20 $49.57 $52.54 $55.48 $58.60 $61.81 $65.02 $68.46
2026-09-27 $49.06 $52.24 $55.38 $58.72 $62.17 $65.63 $69.34
2026-10-04 $48.61 $51.97 $55.30 $58.86 $62.53 $66.22 $70.19
2026-10-11 $48.40 $51.94 $55.46 $59.23 $63.13 $67.04 $71.27
2026-10-18 $47.86 $51.56 $55.25 $59.19 $63.29 $67.41 $71.87
2026-10-25 $47.07 $50.91 $54.75 $58.86 $63.13 $67.44 $72.10
2026-11-01 $46.63 $50.62 $54.62 $58.91 $63.38 $67.89 $72.78
2026-11-08 $46.44 $50.59 $54.76 $59.24 $63.91 $68.63 $73.75
2026-11-15 $45.99 $50.29 $54.60 $59.24 $64.09 $69.01 $74.35
2026-11-22 $45.32 $49.74 $54.18 $58.97 $63.99 $69.07 $74.61
2026-11-29 $45.11 $49.66 $54.25 $59.21 $64.41 $69.68 $75.43
2026-12-06 $44.90 $49.58 $54.31 $59.43 $64.80 $70.26 $76.22
2026-12-13 $44.92 $49.74 $54.62 $59.91 $65.46 $71.11 $77.29
2026-12-20 $44.65 $49.59 $54.60 $60.03 $65.75 $71.58 $77.95
2026-12-27 $44.39 $49.46 $54.59 $60.17 $66.05 $72.04 $78.61
2027-01-03 $44.35 $49.54 $54.81 $60.54 $66.59 $72.77 $79.53
2027-01-10 $43.97 $49.27 $54.65 $60.51 $66.70 $73.03 $79.98
2027-01-17 $43.35 $48.72 $54.20 $60.17 $66.48 $72.95 $80.05
2027-01-24 $43.04 $48.52 $54.11 $60.22 $66.69 $73.31 $80.60
2027-01-31 $42.98 $48.57 $54.29 $60.55 $67.18 $73.99 $81.48

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.