XLF SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$56.31

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$58.82

Bear 68%

$52.89

Bull 68%

$65.11

68% Range Width

20.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $53.30 $54.29 $55.25 $56.24 $57.25 $58.24 $59.28
2026-10-04 $51.89 $53.40 $54.88 $56.42 $57.98 $59.53 $61.17
2026-10-11 $51.17 $53.04 $54.86 $56.78 $58.74 $60.67 $62.73
2026-10-18 $50.25 $52.40 $54.52 $56.75 $59.03 $61.29 $63.71
2026-10-25 $49.16 $51.56 $53.92 $56.41 $58.97 $61.51 $64.24
2026-11-01 $48.53 $51.14 $53.73 $56.47 $59.28 $62.09 $65.10
2026-11-08 $48.20 $51.03 $53.82 $56.79 $59.85 $62.92 $66.21
2026-11-15 $47.60 $50.61 $53.60 $56.78 $60.06 $63.35 $66.89
2026-11-22 $46.85 $50.02 $53.18 $56.54 $60.02 $63.51 $67.28
2026-11-29 $46.54 $49.88 $53.20 $56.75 $60.44 $64.14 $68.15
2026-12-06 $46.22 $49.71 $53.20 $56.93 $60.81 $64.72 $68.95
2026-12-13 $46.14 $49.79 $53.44 $57.36 $61.43 $65.54 $70.00
2026-12-20 $45.79 $49.58 $53.39 $57.48 $61.74 $66.04 $70.72
2026-12-27 $45.46 $49.40 $53.35 $57.61 $62.05 $66.55 $71.44
2027-01-03 $45.36 $49.45 $53.55 $57.98 $62.62 $67.31 $72.42
2027-01-10 $44.92 $49.13 $53.37 $57.95 $62.75 $67.61 $72.92
2027-01-17 $44.23 $48.55 $52.90 $57.61 $62.55 $67.57 $73.05
2027-01-24 $43.90 $48.33 $52.81 $57.66 $62.76 $67.95 $73.62
2027-01-31 $43.82 $48.38 $52.99 $57.99 $63.26 $68.63 $74.50
2027-02-07 $43.45 $48.11 $52.84 $57.98 $63.39 $68.91 $74.96
2027-02-14 $42.90 $47.66 $52.48 $57.74 $63.28 $68.94 $75.16
2027-02-21 $42.75 $47.62 $52.56 $57.95 $63.65 $69.48 $75.87
2027-02-28 $42.58 $47.55 $52.61 $58.14 $63.98 $69.96 $76.54
2027-03-07 $42.62 $47.71 $52.90 $58.56 $64.57 $70.72 $77.49
2027-03-14 $42.39 $47.58 $52.88 $58.68 $64.83 $71.14 $78.09
2027-03-21 $42.18 $47.47 $52.89 $58.82 $65.11 $71.58 $78.71

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.