XLE SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$64.69

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$67.87

Bear 68%

$61.20

Bull 68%

$74.55

68% Range Width

19.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $61.34 $62.49 $63.59 $64.72 $65.86 $66.96 $68.11
2026-10-04 $59.57 $61.34 $63.04 $64.79 $66.54 $68.24 $70.02
2026-10-11 $58.66 $60.84 $62.93 $65.09 $67.24 $69.34 $71.53
2026-10-18 $58.09 $60.62 $63.06 $65.57 $68.08 $70.53 $73.08
2026-10-25 $57.06 $59.91 $62.64 $65.45 $68.27 $71.01 $73.88
2026-11-01 $56.16 $59.29 $62.28 $65.38 $68.47 $71.48 $74.63
2026-11-08 $55.83 $59.21 $62.45 $65.80 $69.15 $72.41 $75.82
2026-11-15 $54.99 $58.60 $62.07 $65.65 $69.24 $72.73 $76.38
2026-11-22 $54.13 $57.96 $61.65 $65.45 $69.26 $72.96 $76.84
2026-11-29 $53.84 $57.89 $61.78 $65.79 $69.81 $73.72 $77.81
2026-12-06 $53.32 $57.56 $61.64 $65.85 $70.07 $74.18 $78.47
2026-12-13 $53.10 $57.54 $61.80 $66.20 $70.61 $74.90 $79.39
2026-12-20 $52.60 $57.23 $61.68 $66.28 $70.88 $75.36 $80.05
2026-12-27 $52.08 $56.91 $61.54 $66.32 $71.12 $75.79 $80.67
2027-01-03 $51.85 $56.85 $61.66 $66.63 $71.61 $76.45 $81.52
2027-01-10 $51.81 $56.99 $61.97 $67.11 $72.27 $77.28 $82.53
2027-01-17 $51.19 $56.54 $61.68 $67.00 $72.32 $77.50 $82.92
2027-01-24 $50.63 $56.14 $61.44 $66.92 $72.41 $77.75 $83.34
2027-01-31 $50.58 $56.25 $61.71 $67.34 $72.99 $78.49 $84.25
2027-02-07 $49.97 $55.80 $61.41 $67.20 $73.00 $78.65 $84.57
2027-02-14 $49.33 $55.30 $61.05 $66.99 $72.95 $78.75 $84.81
2027-02-21 $49.23 $55.35 $61.24 $67.33 $73.44 $79.38 $85.60
2027-02-28 $48.86 $55.13 $61.16 $67.39 $73.64 $79.73 $86.09
2027-03-07 $48.80 $55.21 $61.37 $67.75 $74.14 $80.36 $86.87
2027-03-14 $48.44 $54.99 $61.30 $67.82 $74.36 $80.72 $87.39
2027-03-21 $48.06 $54.76 $61.20 $67.87 $74.55 $81.06 $87.87

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.