XLE SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$57.97

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$60.26

Bear 68%

$54.11

Bull 68%

$66.36

68% Range Width

20.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $54.49 $55.56 $56.59 $57.65 $58.70 $59.72 $60.79
2026-08-16 $53.13 $54.79 $56.37 $58.00 $59.62 $61.19 $62.82
2026-08-23 $51.74 $53.78 $55.73 $57.74 $59.73 $61.66 $63.67
2026-08-30 $50.60 $52.98 $55.26 $57.59 $59.92 $62.17 $64.50
2026-09-06 $49.99 $52.67 $55.22 $57.84 $60.45 $62.96 $65.58
2026-09-13 $49.26 $52.20 $55.01 $57.88 $60.74 $63.51 $66.38
2026-09-20 $48.92 $52.11 $55.15 $58.25 $61.35 $64.33 $67.44
2026-09-27 $48.33 $51.75 $55.00 $58.33 $61.63 $64.83 $68.15
2026-10-04 $47.75 $51.38 $54.83 $58.37 $61.88 $65.27 $68.79
2026-10-11 $47.45 $51.28 $54.92 $58.65 $62.35 $65.92 $69.63
2026-10-18 $47.33 $51.35 $55.17 $59.08 $62.96 $66.71 $70.59
2026-10-25 $46.65 $50.86 $54.86 $58.94 $63.00 $66.91 $70.97
2026-11-01 $46.02 $50.41 $54.59 $58.86 $63.09 $67.18 $71.41
2026-11-08 $45.76 $50.34 $54.68 $59.12 $63.52 $67.77 $72.18
2026-11-15 $45.02 $49.77 $54.28 $58.89 $63.46 $67.87 $72.44
2026-11-22 $44.37 $49.29 $53.97 $58.74 $63.47 $68.03 $72.75
2026-11-29 $44.15 $49.24 $54.06 $58.99 $63.87 $68.58 $73.45
2026-12-06 $43.73 $48.98 $53.95 $59.03 $64.06 $68.91 $73.93
2026-12-13 $43.67 $49.07 $54.18 $59.40 $64.57 $69.55 $74.72
2026-12-20 $43.30 $48.85 $54.11 $59.47 $64.78 $69.90 $75.20
2026-12-27 $42.92 $48.62 $54.01 $59.51 $64.96 $70.21 $75.64
2027-01-03 $42.80 $48.64 $54.16 $59.79 $65.37 $70.74 $76.30
2027-01-10 $42.84 $48.81 $54.46 $60.22 $65.93 $71.42 $77.10
2027-01-17 $42.30 $48.41 $54.20 $60.09 $65.92 $71.53 $77.34
2027-01-24 $41.80 $48.06 $53.97 $60.00 $65.97 $71.70 $77.64
2027-01-31 $41.67 $48.06 $54.11 $60.26 $66.36 $72.22 $78.28

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.