XLC SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$113.36

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$121.72

Bear 68%

$104.85

Bull 68%

$141.94

68% Range Width

30.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $106.39 $109.04 $111.65 $114.41 $117.26 $120.11 $123.17
2026-10-04 $102.45 $106.40 $110.37 $114.64 $119.10 $123.64 $128.60
2026-10-11 $100.41 $105.28 $110.21 $115.57 $121.26 $127.10 $133.55
2026-10-18 $98.32 $103.88 $109.57 $115.83 $122.51 $129.45 $137.20
2026-10-25 $96.26 $102.39 $108.71 $115.71 $123.26 $131.16 $140.06
2026-11-01 $94.82 $101.46 $108.37 $116.07 $124.43 $133.25 $143.27
2026-11-08 $93.61 $100.73 $108.16 $116.52 $125.66 $135.36 $146.46
2026-11-15 $92.23 $99.75 $107.64 $116.57 $126.40 $136.91 $149.01
2026-11-22 $90.34 $98.15 $106.40 $115.79 $126.18 $137.35 $150.30
2026-11-29 $89.06 $97.19 $105.82 $115.69 $126.68 $138.56 $152.42
2026-12-06 $88.15 $96.60 $105.62 $115.99 $127.60 $140.23 $155.03
2026-12-13 $87.77 $96.59 $106.04 $116.96 $129.25 $142.69 $158.54
2026-12-20 $87.32 $96.49 $106.38 $117.86 $130.86 $145.15 $162.10
2026-12-27 $86.44 $95.91 $106.16 $118.11 $131.72 $146.76 $164.70
2027-01-03 $86.11 $95.91 $106.58 $119.08 $133.39 $149.28 $168.35
2027-01-10 $85.33 $95.39 $106.39 $119.35 $134.23 $150.86 $170.91
2027-01-17 $84.34 $94.61 $105.89 $119.23 $134.63 $151.91 $172.85
2027-01-24 $83.70 $94.22 $105.82 $119.60 $135.57 $153.58 $175.52
2027-01-31 $83.16 $93.93 $105.85 $120.06 $136.62 $155.38 $178.34
2027-02-07 $82.39 $93.35 $105.53 $120.12 $137.18 $156.60 $180.47
2027-02-14 $81.09 $92.15 $104.48 $119.30 $136.71 $156.59 $181.15
2027-02-21 $80.28 $91.50 $104.06 $119.20 $137.06 $157.54 $182.95
2027-02-28 $79.76 $91.18 $103.99 $119.52 $137.90 $159.06 $185.44
2027-03-07 $79.67 $91.35 $104.52 $120.52 $139.54 $161.54 $189.09
2027-03-14 $79.51 $91.45 $104.97 $121.46 $141.14 $164.02 $192.79
2027-03-21 $78.94 $91.07 $104.85 $121.72 $141.94 $165.53 $195.35

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.