XLC SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$108.67

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$116.00

Bear 68%

$99.78

Bull 68%

$135.65

68% Range Width

30.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $101.27 $103.85 $106.40 $109.11 $111.91 $114.71 $117.72
2026-08-16 $97.69 $101.52 $105.36 $109.51 $113.87 $118.31 $123.17
2026-08-23 $95.03 $99.68 $104.40 $109.56 $115.05 $120.71 $126.99
2026-08-30 $92.12 $97.36 $102.74 $108.67 $115.03 $121.67 $129.11
2026-09-06 $90.22 $95.99 $101.95 $108.59 $115.78 $123.33 $131.89
2026-09-13 $88.88 $95.13 $101.64 $108.94 $116.91 $125.36 $135.01
2026-09-20 $88.13 $94.85 $101.90 $109.87 $118.62 $127.97 $138.74
2026-09-27 $87.43 $94.59 $102.14 $110.72 $120.23 $130.45 $142.31
2026-10-04 $86.31 $93.81 $101.77 $110.88 $121.03 $132.02 $144.86
2026-10-11 $85.84 $93.73 $102.15 $111.83 $122.70 $134.54 $148.46
2026-10-18 $84.96 $93.16 $101.95 $112.13 $123.60 $136.19 $151.08
2026-10-25 $83.90 $92.35 $101.47 $112.08 $124.10 $137.36 $153.15
2026-11-01 $83.00 $91.73 $101.20 $112.26 $124.88 $138.87 $155.64
2026-11-08 $82.31 $91.33 $101.15 $112.70 $125.94 $140.70 $158.51
2026-11-15 $81.41 $90.67 $100.79 $112.75 $126.54 $142.00 $160.75
2026-11-22 $79.91 $89.29 $99.60 $111.82 $125.98 $141.94 $161.39
2026-11-29 $79.02 $88.59 $99.16 $111.74 $126.39 $142.99 $163.32
2026-12-06 $78.45 $88.25 $99.11 $112.11 $127.31 $144.62 $165.94
2026-12-13 $78.28 $88.36 $99.58 $113.06 $128.91 $147.05 $169.52
2026-12-20 $78.09 $88.43 $99.99 $113.95 $130.44 $149.40 $173.01
2026-12-27 $77.46 $87.98 $99.80 $114.11 $131.10 $150.72 $175.28
2027-01-03 $77.36 $88.15 $100.31 $115.10 $132.74 $153.21 $178.98
2027-01-10 $76.86 $87.83 $100.24 $115.41 $133.56 $154.72 $181.49
2027-01-17 $76.16 $87.27 $99.89 $115.35 $133.94 $155.71 $183.37
2027-01-24 $75.59 $86.87 $99.72 $115.55 $134.64 $157.10 $185.79
2027-01-31 $75.19 $86.66 $99.78 $116.00 $135.65 $158.88 $188.70

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.