XLB SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$51.86

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$53.52

Bear 68%

$49.38

Bull 68%

$57.40

68% Range Width

15.0%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $50.11 $50.80 $51.46 $52.13 $52.79 $53.43 $54.09
2026-08-16 $48.97 $50.06 $51.08 $52.12 $53.14 $54.12 $55.12
2026-08-23 $48.09 $49.49 $50.79 $52.10 $53.39 $54.61 $55.86
2026-08-30 $47.29 $48.94 $50.48 $52.02 $53.52 $54.95 $56.41
2026-09-06 $46.77 $48.64 $50.38 $52.12 $53.81 $55.41 $57.04
2026-09-13 $46.33 $48.40 $50.32 $52.24 $54.10 $55.85 $57.63
2026-09-20 $46.15 $48.41 $50.49 $52.55 $54.55 $56.44 $58.35
2026-09-27 $45.78 $48.21 $50.44 $52.66 $54.80 $56.81 $58.85
2026-10-04 $45.34 $47.94 $50.32 $52.68 $54.95 $57.08 $59.23
2026-10-11 $45.12 $47.87 $50.38 $52.87 $55.26 $57.50 $59.76
2026-10-18 $44.70 $47.60 $50.25 $52.87 $55.37 $57.72 $60.08
2026-10-25 $44.25 $47.31 $50.09 $52.83 $55.45 $57.89 $60.36
2026-11-01 $43.86 $47.07 $49.99 $52.85 $55.58 $58.13 $60.69
2026-11-08 $43.43 $46.80 $49.84 $52.82 $55.67 $58.32 $60.98
2026-11-15 $43.01 $46.53 $49.70 $52.80 $55.75 $58.50 $61.25
2026-11-22 $42.54 $46.21 $49.51 $52.72 $55.78 $58.61 $61.46
2026-11-29 $42.28 $46.09 $49.50 $52.82 $55.97 $58.89 $61.81
2026-12-06 $42.07 $46.00 $49.52 $52.94 $56.18 $59.18 $62.18
2026-12-13 $42.10 $46.14 $49.75 $53.25 $56.57 $59.63 $62.70
2026-12-20 $41.88 $46.05 $49.76 $53.35 $56.75 $59.89 $63.03
2026-12-27 $41.57 $45.87 $49.68 $53.37 $56.86 $60.07 $63.28
2027-01-03 $41.48 $45.88 $49.79 $53.56 $57.12 $60.40 $63.67
2027-01-10 $41.16 $45.69 $49.70 $53.56 $57.20 $60.55 $63.89
2027-01-17 $40.79 $45.45 $49.57 $53.52 $57.24 $60.67 $64.08
2027-01-24 $40.49 $45.28 $49.49 $53.54 $57.34 $60.84 $64.32
2027-01-31 $40.13 $45.06 $49.38 $53.52 $57.40 $60.97 $64.52

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.