XLB SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$50.60

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$51.89

Bear 68%

$47.44

Bull 68%

$56.09

68% Range Width

16.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $48.40 $49.14 $49.84 $50.55 $51.25 $51.93 $52.63
2026-10-04 $47.20 $48.36 $49.45 $50.55 $51.64 $52.68 $53.75
2026-10-11 $46.51 $47.98 $49.37 $50.76 $52.13 $53.44 $54.78
2026-10-18 $45.74 $47.49 $49.12 $50.76 $52.36 $53.89 $55.45
2026-10-25 $45.00 $46.99 $48.84 $50.70 $52.51 $54.22 $55.97
2026-11-01 $44.43 $46.64 $48.68 $50.73 $52.72 $54.60 $56.52
2026-11-08 $43.87 $46.28 $48.51 $50.73 $52.89 $54.92 $56.99
2026-11-15 $43.30 $45.91 $48.31 $50.70 $53.01 $55.19 $57.40
2026-11-22 $42.74 $45.53 $48.10 $50.64 $53.10 $55.41 $57.75
2026-11-29 $42.35 $45.31 $48.03 $50.71 $53.30 $55.74 $58.20
2026-12-06 $41.99 $45.11 $47.97 $50.79 $53.51 $56.06 $58.63
2026-12-13 $41.90 $45.17 $48.16 $51.10 $53.93 $56.57 $59.25
2026-12-20 $41.58 $45.01 $48.13 $51.20 $54.15 $56.90 $59.68
2026-12-27 $41.18 $44.77 $48.02 $51.22 $54.29 $57.15 $60.03
2027-01-03 $41.01 $44.74 $48.12 $51.43 $54.60 $57.56 $60.53
2027-01-10 $40.60 $44.49 $48.00 $51.43 $54.71 $57.76 $60.83
2027-01-17 $40.14 $44.18 $47.82 $51.37 $54.76 $57.91 $61.07
2027-01-24 $39.80 $43.98 $47.74 $51.40 $54.89 $58.13 $61.39
2027-01-31 $39.43 $43.75 $47.63 $51.40 $54.99 $58.32 $61.66
2027-02-07 $39.02 $43.49 $47.49 $51.37 $55.05 $58.47 $61.89
2027-02-14 $38.60 $43.21 $47.33 $51.32 $55.10 $58.60 $62.11
2027-02-21 $38.33 $43.08 $47.30 $51.39 $55.25 $58.84 $62.42
2027-02-28 $38.08 $42.96 $47.28 $51.46 $55.42 $59.08 $62.73
2027-03-07 $38.12 $43.09 $47.51 $51.77 $55.79 $59.51 $63.23
2027-03-14 $37.90 $43.00 $47.52 $51.87 $55.98 $59.77 $63.56
2027-03-21 $37.58 $42.82 $47.44 $51.89 $56.09 $59.96 $63.82

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.