VST SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$160.16

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$225.06

Bear 68%

$115.42

Bull 68%

$669.30

68% Range Width

246.1%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $118.02 $131.12 $145.95 $164.17 $186.22 $212.43 $246.52
2026-08-09 $104.43 $120.56 $140.02 $165.74 $199.74 $244.52 $310.65
2026-08-16 $96.70 $114.53 $136.98 $168.26 $212.40 $275.51 $379.47
2026-08-23 $91.28 $110.48 $135.57 $172.20 $227.13 $312.25 $469.61
2026-08-30 $84.53 $103.77 $129.54 $168.37 $229.14 $329.05 $531.30
2026-09-06 $81.20 $101.26 $128.88 $172.02 $243.06 $368.67 $655.36
2026-09-13 $77.17 $97.37 $125.76 $171.36 $249.50 $396.20 $768.68
2026-09-20 $76.59 $98.21 $129.50 $181.80 $276.88 $472.88 $1,069.78
2026-09-27 $73.86 $95.71 $127.94 $183.26 $288.03 $519.18 $1,334.70
2026-10-04 $71.40 $93.42 $126.46 $184.61 $299.15 $569.68 $1,693.43
2026-10-11 $69.25 $91.43 $125.25 $186.24 $311.10 $627.42 $2,213.43
2026-10-18 $66.72 $88.69 $122.63 $184.98 $316.61 $670.05 $2,781.96
2026-10-25 $65.15 $87.54 $122.86 $189.73 $338.35 $780.32 $4,592.39
2026-11-01 $63.23 $85.73 $121.81 $191.89 $354.76 $887.00 $8,014.24
2026-11-08 $61.64 $84.31 $121.28 $194.95 $374.25 $1,024.51 $18,486.76
2026-11-15 $60.48 $83.50 $121.70 $199.99 $400.71 $1,226.23 $125,648.00
2026-11-22 $57.94 $80.29 $117.65 $195.11 $398.01 $1,280.38 $2,057,662.60
2026-11-29 $56.95 $79.57 $118.00 $199.75 $424.93 $1,547.95 N/A
2026-12-06 $55.28 $77.63 $115.98 $198.89 $434.74 $1,727.91 N/A
2026-12-13 $55.50 $78.87 $119.91 $212.15 $496.34 $2,524.93 N/A
2026-12-20 $54.31 $77.63 $119.05 $214.00 $519.11 $3,072.36 N/A
2026-12-27 $53.17 $76.43 $118.19 $215.73 $542.46 $3,799.38 N/A
2027-01-03 $52.14 $75.35 $117.50 $217.81 $568.55 $4,855.27 N/A
2027-01-10 $50.79 $73.66 $115.46 $216.20 $578.62 $5,733.55 N/A
2027-01-17 $50.06 $73.16 $116.05 $222.28 $630.36 $9,450.80 N/A
2027-01-24 $49.05 $72.11 $115.42 $225.06 $669.30 $15,692.19 N/A

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.