VRT SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$238.88

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$330.07

Bear 68%

$153.92

Bull 68%

$862.64

68% Range Width

214.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $169.83 $190.09 $212.46 $239.12 $270.17 $305.38 $348.57
2026-10-04 $140.44 $166.31 $197.03 $236.61 $286.85 $349.31 $434.13
2026-10-11 $122.87 $151.43 $187.17 $235.96 $302.08 $390.45 $520.85
2026-10-18 $109.98 $139.81 $178.69 $234.28 $313.76 $426.69 $605.82
2026-10-25 $104.32 $136.47 $180.01 $245.07 $343.10 $491.10 $743.94
2026-11-01 $97.76 $130.96 $177.37 $249.37 $362.86 $543.66 $874.09
2026-11-08 $92.59 $126.71 $175.82 $254.69 $384.39 $601.97 $1,026.94
2026-11-15 $87.55 $122.09 $173.11 $257.61 $402.04 $656.22 $1,185.20
2026-11-22 $79.29 $111.96 $161.06 $244.10 $389.85 $655.06 $1,232.47
2026-11-29 $77.10 $110.82 $162.73 $253.21 $418.25 $733.69 $1,468.84
2026-12-06 $74.66 $109.04 $163.16 $260.13 $443.48 $810.70 $1,725.37
2026-12-13 $73.28 $108.78 $165.97 $271.43 $478.52 $914.71 $2,084.08
2026-12-20 $71.25 $107.45 $167.04 $280.07 $510.49 $1,021.10 $2,498.62
2026-12-27 $67.62 $103.20 $162.79 $278.31 $520.85 $1,080.66 $2,805.96
2027-01-03 $64.51 $99.61 $159.37 $277.71 $533.57 $1,148.84 $3,172.63
2027-01-10 $61.47 $95.92 $155.44 $275.67 $542.75 $1,210.25 $3,548.10
2027-01-17 $60.84 $96.32 $158.95 $288.96 $589.19 $1,382.80 $4,436.45
2027-01-24 $59.15 $94.75 $158.63 $294.26 $617.59 $1,513.33 $5,252.95
2027-01-31 $57.72 $93.54 $158.90 $300.83 $650.29 $1,666.73 $6,297.90
2027-02-07 $56.04 $91.75 $157.88 $304.43 $676.05 $1,806.76 $7,408.30
2027-02-14 $52.17 $85.74 $148.24 $287.76 $645.40 $1,751.98 $7,411.26
2027-02-21 $51.63 $85.86 $150.72 $299.00 $692.74 $1,980.47 $9,318.59
2027-02-28 $50.81 $85.41 $151.99 $307.56 $734.33 $2,205.01 $11,525.79
2027-03-07 $50.54 $85.97 $155.36 $321.54 $794.80 $2,528.63 $15,048.06
2027-03-14 $49.82 $85.70 $157.15 $332.27 $849.21 $2,860.64 $19,482.82
2027-03-21 $47.99 $83.15 $153.92 $330.07 $862.64 $3,021.31 $22,652.66

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.