VRT SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$298.09

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$491.40

Bear 68%

$209.83

Bull 68%

$1,529.42

68% Range Width

268.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $216.98 $245.95 $278.58 $318.27 $365.59 $420.60 $490.00
2026-08-09 $180.97 $217.81 $262.73 $322.35 $400.68 $501.93 $645.87
2026-08-16 $160.29 $201.38 $254.47 $329.68 $436.29 $586.53 $823.12
2026-08-23 $145.21 $188.67 $247.44 $335.27 $467.93 $669.43 $1,017.45
2026-08-30 $125.29 $166.47 $223.90 $312.92 $453.52 $678.90 $1,096.01
2026-09-06 $119.44 $162.89 $225.71 $327.43 $497.09 $788.07 $1,376.92
2026-09-13 $113.58 $158.44 $225.39 $338.11 $535.69 $896.68 $1,693.59
2026-09-20 $110.57 $157.77 $230.50 $357.94 $593.23 $1,053.38 $2,172.87
2026-09-27 $106.64 $155.18 $232.11 $371.77 $642.12 $1,205.54 $2,712.30
2026-10-04 $99.84 $147.39 $224.33 $367.77 $655.57 $1,285.76 $3,104.60
2026-10-11 $94.39 $141.29 $218.71 $366.85 $674.89 $1,384.12 $3,601.49
2026-10-18 $89.26 $135.28 $212.63 $364.20 $689.97 $1,476.37 $4,134.49
2026-10-25 $88.69 $136.99 $220.45 $390.16 $774.46 $1,776.25 $5,641.00
2026-11-01 $85.13 $133.28 $218.15 $395.43 $812.71 $1,966.02 $6,912.02
2026-11-08 $82.43 $130.85 $217.94 $404.98 $863.55 $2,213.56 $8,738.90
2026-11-15 $79.67 $128.07 $216.78 $412.27 $910.41 $2,469.53 $10,983.61
2026-11-22 $72.95 $117.69 $200.13 $383.16 $854.77 $2,357.74 $10,875.90
2026-11-29 $72.11 $118.01 $204.40 $402.04 $935.09 $2,766.24 $14,957.03
2026-12-06 $70.75 $117.24 $206.42 $415.99 $1,005.19 $3,177.11 $20,171.27
2026-12-13 $70.57 $118.68 $213.03 $441.97 $1,118.99 $3,845.38 $30,400.76
2026-12-20 $69.61 $118.52 $216.30 $460.16 $1,214.06 $4,504.39 $44,341.37
2026-12-27 $66.71 $114.39 $210.74 $454.88 $1,229.49 $4,777.13 $54,189.08
2027-01-03 $64.34 $111.16 $206.89 $453.67 $1,259.22 $5,153.14 $69,225.22
2027-01-10 $61.95 $107.76 $202.40 $450.19 $1,280.29 $5,499.73 $87,449.46
2027-01-17 $62.33 $110.04 $210.92 $484.43 $1,456.48 $7,019.99 $174,758.44
2027-01-24 $60.71 $108.14 $209.83 $491.40 $1,529.42 $7,941.92 $276,281.90

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.