U.S. Stock Market Cycle Position

How it is computed

The Peak/Valley oscillator on S&P 500 SPDR ETF: 0 is a cycle valley, 100 a cycle peak. The leading score averages two ranks taken over the last 504 sessions — how far price is stretched above its 200-day average, and how close it is to its running high — then smooths the result.

The lagging score confirms it from volatility, beta against the market benchmark, average return, risk-adjusted return and the drawdown from the first close. Bands: under 5 Lowest Risk, 5–20 Accumulation, 20–40 Neutral, 40–60 Moderate, 60–80 Warning, 80 or more Danger.