UPST SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$25.15

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$24.51

Bear 68%

$14.50

Bull 68%

$48.27

68% Range Width

137.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $19.60 $21.35 $23.24 $25.45 $27.96 $30.76 $34.13
2026-10-04 $17.22 $19.56 $22.25 $25.60 $29.73 $34.72 $41.29
2026-10-11 $15.43 $18.04 $21.17 $25.27 $30.60 $37.46 $47.23
2026-10-18 $13.95 $16.66 $20.01 $24.56 $30.75 $39.13 $51.84
2026-10-25 $12.85 $15.61 $19.11 $24.02 $30.96 $40.79 $56.59
2026-11-01 $12.20 $15.06 $18.78 $24.17 $32.06 $43.78 $63.80
2026-11-08 $11.64 $14.58 $18.50 $24.31 $33.13 $46.81 $71.62
2026-11-15 $11.06 $14.01 $18.03 $24.13 $33.66 $49.03 $78.44
2026-11-22 $10.36 $13.25 $17.23 $23.37 $33.19 $49.50 $82.10
2026-11-29 $9.96 $12.86 $16.92 $23.33 $33.85 $51.97 $90.18
2026-12-06 $9.69 $12.65 $16.85 $23.63 $35.09 $55.61 $101.61
2026-12-13 $9.54 $12.59 $17.00 $24.28 $36.97 $60.74 $117.88
2026-12-20 $9.35 $12.47 $17.07 $24.83 $38.79 $66.16 $137.04
2026-12-27 $9.10 $12.24 $16.95 $25.04 $40.01 $70.56 $155.41
2027-01-03 $8.74 $11.85 $16.54 $24.73 $40.19 $72.76 $168.43
2027-01-10 $8.34 $11.35 $15.94 $24.04 $39.58 $73.07 $175.77
2027-01-17 $7.99 $10.94 $15.46 $23.52 $39.24 $73.99 $185.57
2027-01-24 $7.81 $10.76 $15.35 $23.66 $40.26 $78.31 $209.57
2027-01-31 $7.64 $10.60 $15.25 $23.80 $41.28 $82.86 $237.29
2027-02-07 $7.41 $10.34 $14.98 $23.62 $41.60 $85.67 $259.81
2027-02-14 $7.10 $9.93 $14.44 $22.89 $40.63 $84.82 $265.45
2027-02-21 $6.93 $9.75 $14.27 $22.85 $41.21 $88.42 $295.25
2027-02-28 $6.83 $9.67 $14.28 $23.14 $42.58 $94.57 $344.30
2027-03-07 $6.79 $9.69 $14.44 $23.77 $44.80 $103.94 $424.41
2027-03-14 $6.73 $9.67 $14.55 $24.31 $46.93 $113.85 $527.48
2027-03-21 $6.61 $9.56 $14.50 $24.51 $48.27 $121.58 $631.33

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.