UPST SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$29.05

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$27.24

Bear 68%

$15.62

Bull 68%

$55.76

68% Range Width

147.4%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $21.35 $23.37 $25.58 $28.16 $31.13 $34.45 $38.46
2026-08-09 $18.53 $21.20 $24.29 $28.18 $33.00 $38.86 $46.65
2026-08-16 $16.79 $19.82 $23.49 $28.36 $34.77 $43.11 $55.13
2026-08-23 $15.35 $18.56 $22.59 $28.14 $35.81 $46.39 $62.75
2026-08-30 $13.92 $17.13 $21.26 $27.14 $35.57 $47.73 $67.67
2026-09-06 $13.12 $16.42 $20.78 $27.18 $36.71 $51.13 $76.30
2026-09-13 $12.59 $16.02 $20.66 $27.67 $38.52 $55.76 $87.88
2026-09-20 $12.26 $15.84 $20.81 $28.55 $41.01 $61.80 $103.42
2026-09-27 $11.92 $15.62 $20.87 $29.27 $43.29 $67.85 $120.65
2026-10-04 $11.50 $15.25 $20.66 $29.54 $44.84 $72.84 $137.12
2026-10-11 $10.95 $14.65 $20.08 $29.14 $45.15 $75.51 $149.16
2026-10-18 $10.34 $13.94 $19.27 $28.30 $44.58 $76.32 $156.93
2026-10-25 $9.81 $13.33 $18.59 $27.64 $44.31 $77.83 $167.38
2026-11-01 $9.49 $13.00 $18.34 $27.70 $45.40 $82.43 $188.22
2026-11-08 $9.21 $12.74 $18.17 $27.88 $46.76 $87.87 $214.13
2026-11-15 $8.88 $12.37 $17.80 $27.67 $47.28 $91.49 $236.06
2026-11-22 $8.42 $11.78 $17.05 $26.69 $46.12 $90.85 $242.87
2026-11-29 $8.19 $11.53 $16.85 $26.73 $47.10 $95.74 $273.16
2026-12-06 $8.05 $11.44 $16.89 $27.21 $49.09 $103.71 $321.69
2026-12-13 $7.99 $11.45 $17.12 $28.07 $52.05 $115.13 $396.65
2026-12-20 $7.90 $11.42 $17.26 $28.77 $54.74 $126.62 $486.14
2026-12-27 $7.75 $11.28 $17.19 $29.04 $56.44 $135.58 $573.66
2027-01-03 $7.50 $10.97 $16.81 $28.65 $56.46 $139.10 $630.00
2027-01-10 $7.21 $10.56 $16.25 $27.83 $55.32 $138.45 $654.94
2027-01-17 $6.94 $10.20 $15.77 $27.18 $54.62 $139.43 $698.06
2027-01-24 $6.79 $10.04 $15.62 $27.24 $55.76 $147.48 $820.33

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.