68% Bear Case

$1.42

23-Week Base Target

$2.18

68% Bull Case

$3.74

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of UNI7083 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 2.10 2.23 2.37 2.53 2.70 2.89 3.11
2026-06-21 1.86 2.04 2.25 2.49 2.77 3.09 3.49
2026-06-28 1.68 1.89 2.13 2.43 2.81 3.25 3.85
2026-07-05 1.56 1.79 2.07 2.43 2.90 3.49 4.33
2026-07-12 1.44 1.69 1.99 2.40 2.94 3.66 4.74
2026-07-19 1.35 1.60 1.92 2.36 2.97 3.82 5.17
2026-07-26 1.27 1.53 1.86 2.33 3.00 3.97 5.60
2026-08-02 1.21 1.48 1.83 2.33 3.07 4.20 6.19
2026-08-09 1.18 1.46 1.83 2.37 3.21 4.54 7.04
2026-08-16 1.12 1.39 1.77 2.33 3.21 4.65 7.49
2026-08-23 1.07 1.34 1.72 2.29 3.22 4.78 8.01
2026-08-30 1.03 1.31 1.69 2.29 3.27 4.99 8.75
2026-09-06 1.01 1.29 1.68 2.31 3.38 5.33 9.88
2026-09-13 0.97 1.25 1.65 2.31 3.44 5.57 10.89
2026-09-20 0.94 1.21 1.61 2.28 3.45 5.74 11.76
2026-09-27 0.91 1.19 1.60 2.29 3.54 6.06 13.20
2026-10-04 0.88 1.16 1.57 2.26 3.55 6.24 14.29
2026-10-11 0.85 1.12 1.53 2.23 3.56 6.40 15.43
2026-10-18 0.82 1.09 1.50 2.21 3.56 6.55 16.61
2026-10-25 0.80 1.07 1.48 2.21 3.63 6.87 18.61
2026-11-01 0.80 1.07 1.49 2.25 3.78 7.43 22.09
2026-11-08 0.77 1.04 1.45 2.21 3.75 7.51 23.42
2026-11-15 0.75 1.01 1.42 2.18 3.74 7.65 25.19