TSM SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$421.55

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$539.74

Bear 68%

$347.38

Bull 68%

$919.21

68% Range Width

105.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $350.18 $372.45 $395.67 $421.75 $450.29 $480.62 $515.40
2026-10-04 $318.56 $350.72 $385.94 $427.56 $475.69 $529.95 $596.20
2026-10-11 $298.94 $337.51 $381.26 $435.03 $499.95 $576.62 $675.24
2026-10-18 $285.35 $328.75 $379.43 $443.75 $524.28 $623.31 $756.73
2026-10-25 $270.84 $317.16 $372.53 $444.68 $537.82 $656.37 $822.70
2026-11-01 $257.64 $305.88 $364.73 $443.18 $547.21 $683.76 $882.55
2026-11-08 $250.10 $300.91 $364.11 $450.28 $567.63 $726.55 $966.92
2026-11-15 $243.60 $296.68 $363.90 $457.48 $588.19 $770.57 $1,056.92
2026-11-22 $231.23 $284.13 $352.00 $447.97 $584.55 $779.53 $1,094.60
2026-11-29 $225.63 $280.07 $350.99 $453.08 $601.62 $819.44 $1,183.90
2026-12-06 $220.08 $275.74 $349.25 $456.86 $616.73 $857.25 $1,273.51
2026-12-13 $216.58 $273.92 $350.75 $465.16 $638.83 $907.31 $1,389.09
2026-12-20 $212.30 $270.96 $350.62 $471.24 $658.26 $955.27 $1,508.22
2026-12-27 $208.82 $268.92 $351.64 $479.02 $680.81 $1,010.29 $1,647.81
2027-01-03 $205.93 $267.52 $353.44 $487.95 $705.69 $1,071.33 $1,807.70
2027-01-10 $203.60 $266.78 $356.08 $498.21 $733.32 $1,139.67 $1,992.88
2027-01-17 $198.85 $262.35 $353.04 $499.31 $745.56 $1,181.34 $2,128.92
2027-01-24 $193.64 $257.03 $348.41 $497.55 $752.65 $1,213.95 $2,250.22
2027-01-31 $191.38 $255.92 $350.03 $505.89 $777.84 $1,283.21 $2,467.09
2027-02-07 $189.26 $254.91 $351.71 $514.36 $803.80 $1,356.61 $2,708.60
2027-02-14 $182.47 $246.69 $341.93 $503.17 $793.09 $1,355.00 $2,761.75
2027-02-21 $180.12 $245.06 $342.34 $509.17 $814.58 $1,421.84 $3,006.47
2027-02-28 $177.52 $242.96 $341.89 $513.63 $833.40 $1,484.97 $3,255.69
2027-03-07 $176.22 $242.79 $344.46 $523.39 $863.08 $1,575.10 $3,605.19
2027-03-14 $174.24 $241.55 $345.40 $530.56 $888.70 $1,660.47 $3,969.39
2027-03-21 $172.70 $240.98 $347.38 $539.74 $919.21 $1,761.57 $4,418.65

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.