TSM SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$413.45

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$516.66

Bear 68%

$328.32

Bull 68%

$895.13

68% Range Width

109.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $343.62 $365.29 $387.87 $413.20 $440.88 $470.27 $503.92
2026-08-09 $305.55 $336.55 $370.50 $410.63 $457.03 $509.34 $573.21
2026-08-16 $284.95 $322.24 $364.60 $416.75 $479.81 $554.43 $650.62
2026-08-23 $270.37 $312.24 $361.27 $423.65 $502.01 $598.67 $729.38
2026-08-30 $251.18 $294.68 $346.79 $414.82 $502.82 $615.06 $772.89
2026-09-06 $241.38 $287.50 $343.96 $419.52 $520.17 $652.93 $847.32
2026-09-13 $232.29 $280.35 $340.33 $422.43 $534.71 $687.47 $919.79
2026-09-20 $226.51 $276.86 $340.90 $430.48 $556.24 $732.80 $1,011.97
2026-09-27 $220.46 $272.57 $339.95 $436.08 $574.38 $774.30 $1,102.43
2026-10-04 $215.57 $269.41 $340.16 $443.06 $594.64 $820.19 $1,204.62
2026-10-11 $211.50 $267.06 $341.21 $451.06 $616.68 $870.32 $1,319.48
2026-10-18 $208.18 $265.50 $343.14 $460.26 $640.94 $925.79 $1,450.36
2026-10-25 $202.44 $260.42 $339.99 $461.97 $654.03 $964.87 $1,558.39
2026-11-01 $195.76 $253.75 $334.23 $459.38 $660.07 $992.69 $1,649.34
2026-11-08 $192.46 $251.67 $334.95 $466.62 $682.38 $1,050.30 $1,806.86
2026-11-15 $189.63 $250.10 $336.26 $474.72 $706.58 $1,113.51 $1,986.26
2026-11-22 $181.98 $241.22 $326.31 $464.39 $698.67 $1,117.17 $2,038.66
2026-11-29 $178.99 $239.04 $326.26 $469.89 $718.39 $1,174.28 $2,219.42
2026-12-06 $175.64 $236.17 $325.01 $473.29 $734.55 $1,226.07 $2,397.56
2026-12-13 $173.97 $235.70 $327.37 $482.71 $762.16 $1,303.38 $2,653.84
2026-12-20 $171.69 $234.22 $328.05 $489.29 $784.94 $1,373.33 $2,907.36
2026-12-27 $169.89 $233.37 $329.66 $497.48 $811.33 $1,453.94 $3,209.86
2027-01-03 $168.42 $232.96 $331.92 $506.88 $840.75 $1,544.78 $3,566.94
2027-01-10 $167.30 $233.02 $334.92 $517.70 $873.82 $1,648.26 $3,994.95
2027-01-17 $164.25 $230.04 $332.95 $519.71 $889.76 $1,715.09 $4,331.27
2027-01-24 $160.30 $225.54 $328.32 $516.66 $895.13 $1,757.50 $4,599.65

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.