SOXX SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$503.84

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$616.60

Bear 68%

$447.82

Bull 68%

$882.88

68% Range Width

70.6%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $429.55 $452.38 $475.81 $501.66 $529.44 $558.42 $590.98
2026-08-16 $401.50 $433.26 $466.94 $505.40 $548.23 $594.60 $648.77
2026-08-23 $381.03 $418.45 $459.07 $506.63 $561.03 $621.62 $694.59
2026-08-30 $358.99 $399.63 $444.57 $498.23 $560.94 $632.38 $720.58
2026-09-06 $349.60 $394.08 $444.10 $504.94 $577.49 $661.95 $768.75
2026-09-13 $341.33 $389.04 $443.53 $510.90 $592.72 $689.88 $815.50
2026-09-20 $338.03 $389.40 $448.93 $523.72 $616.21 $728.21 $876.25
2026-09-27 $333.66 $388.08 $452.00 $533.48 $635.94 $762.30 $932.86
2026-10-04 $329.76 $387.03 $455.11 $543.14 $655.57 $796.70 $991.09
2026-10-11 $325.54 $385.28 $457.13 $551.25 $673.27 $829.02 $1,047.77
2026-10-18 $317.94 $379.00 $453.18 $551.45 $680.53 $847.73 $1,086.66
2026-10-25 $310.45 $372.55 $448.71 $550.66 $686.23 $864.32 $1,123.06
2026-11-01 $304.12 $367.63 $446.30 $552.86 $696.49 $888.12 $1,171.76
2026-11-08 $299.16 $364.24 $445.69 $557.30 $709.80 $916.50 $1,228.31
2026-11-15 $293.26 $359.42 $442.98 $558.70 $718.84 $939.09 $1,277.34
2026-11-22 $283.24 $348.91 $432.46 $549.13 $712.19 $939.08 $1,292.52
2026-11-29 $280.68 $348.06 $434.60 $556.78 $729.78 $974.25 $1,362.40
2026-12-06 $277.94 $346.85 $436.16 $563.57 $746.27 $1,008.36 $1,432.32
2026-12-13 $278.31 $349.75 $443.25 $578.21 $774.49 $1,060.85 $1,534.05
2026-12-20 $277.37 $350.81 $447.82 $589.36 $797.95 $1,107.13 $1,628.46
2026-12-27 $276.43 $351.81 $452.26 $600.40 $821.55 $1,154.57 $1,727.59
2027-01-03 $274.92 $351.94 $455.47 $609.68 $842.78 $1,199.16 $1,824.56
2027-01-10 $270.43 $347.84 $452.59 $609.91 $850.12 $1,221.98 $1,885.25
2027-01-17 $265.77 $343.37 $449.06 $609.01 $855.60 $1,241.90 $1,941.84
2027-01-24 $261.98 $340.23 $447.58 $611.52 $867.12 $1,273.17 $2,022.69
2027-01-31 $259.13 $338.32 $447.82 $616.60 $882.88 $1,312.20 $2,120.55

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.