SOXX SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$507.24

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$684.99

Bear 68%

$456.81

Bull 68%

$1,105.88

68% Range Width

94.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $433.06 $458.80 $485.48 $515.25 $547.60 $581.75 $620.61
2026-10-04 $406.97 $443.77 $483.48 $529.69 $582.23 $640.37 $709.96
2026-10-11 $384.26 $427.55 $475.61 $533.25 $601.00 $678.68 $775.35
2026-10-18 $362.99 $410.28 $463.95 $529.90 $609.51 $703.50 $824.33
2026-10-25 $346.61 $397.04 $455.36 $528.55 $619.01 $728.62 $873.77
2026-11-01 $342.43 $397.53 $462.47 $545.72 $651.14 $782.37 $961.68
2026-11-08 $333.56 $391.60 $461.12 $551.87 $669.22 $818.81 $1,028.98
2026-11-15 $324.29 $384.53 $457.75 $554.89 $682.93 $849.76 $1,090.34
2026-11-22 $311.57 $372.50 $447.44 $548.24 $683.25 $862.46 $1,126.75
2026-11-29 $304.57 $367.30 $445.41 $552.00 $697.26 $893.98 $1,191.31
2026-12-06 $301.82 $367.29 $449.89 $564.36 $723.24 $943.13 $1,284.56
2026-12-13 $296.34 $363.44 $449.09 $569.38 $739.07 $978.51 $1,359.43
2026-12-20 $292.50 $362.53 $453.31 $583.16 $770.47 $1,042.00 $1,489.08
2026-12-27 $289.97 $363.26 $459.78 $600.47 $808.21 $1,118.08 $1,647.58
2027-01-03 $283.04 $357.69 $457.27 $604.71 $826.68 $1,165.87 $1,764.26
2027-01-10 $273.90 $348.66 $449.48 $600.72 $832.22 $1,193.41 $1,848.63
2027-01-17 $266.21 $341.29 $443.61 $599.12 $841.10 $1,226.62 $1,946.17
2027-01-24 $265.97 $344.20 $452.33 $619.55 $885.62 $1,321.81 $2,168.90
2027-01-31 $261.75 $341.29 $452.50 $626.88 $909.44 $1,383.78 $2,336.27
2027-02-07 $256.72 $337.00 $450.39 $630.48 $927.22 $1,436.42 $2,491.68
2027-02-14 $248.74 $328.18 $441.24 $622.55 $925.11 $1,453.10 $2,574.50
2027-02-21 $244.62 $324.80 $440.01 $627.04 $944.23 $1,509.91 $2,750.49
2027-02-28 $243.42 $325.61 $445.06 $641.78 $981.91 $1,604.59 $3,025.08
2027-03-07 $240.02 $323.03 $444.80 $647.78 $1,004.44 $1,672.11 $3,248.09
2027-03-14 $238.09 $323.20 $449.73 $664.25 $1,050.10 $1,796.23 $3,649.27
2027-03-21 $237.00 $324.66 $456.81 $684.99 $1,105.88 $1,949.32 $4,167.89

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.