SOUN SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$6.43

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$5.76

Bear 68%

$2.01

Bull 68%

$15.66

68% Range Width

237.2%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $4.06 $4.70 $5.41 $6.25 $7.20 $8.27 $9.53
2026-08-09 $3.13 $3.96 $4.95 $6.21 $7.77 $9.65 $12.05
2026-08-16 $2.61 $3.55 $4.74 $6.35 $8.48 $11.19 $14.87
2026-08-23 $2.17 $3.12 $4.41 $6.25 $8.81 $12.23 $17.12
2026-08-30 $1.85 $2.82 $4.18 $6.22 $9.19 $13.32 $19.49
2026-09-06 $1.65 $2.63 $4.07 $6.32 $9.73 $14.66 $22.30
2026-09-13 $1.48 $2.47 $3.98 $6.43 $10.27 $16.03 $25.23
2026-09-20 $1.35 $2.35 $3.92 $6.57 $10.87 $17.51 $28.45
2026-09-27 $1.17 $2.12 $3.67 $6.36 $10.88 $18.07 $30.28
2026-10-04 $1.06 $1.99 $3.57 $6.40 $11.28 $19.27 $33.21
2026-10-11 $0.9571 $1.86 $3.43 $6.35 $11.52 $20.22 $35.77
2026-10-18 $0.8525 $1.71 $3.27 $6.22 $11.62 $20.91 $37.96
2026-10-25 $0.7380 $1.54 $3.05 $6.02 $11.62 $21.55 $40.27
2026-11-01 $0.6577 $1.43 $2.93 $5.98 $11.91 $22.73 $43.69
2026-11-08 $0.6077 $1.37 $2.91 $6.12 $12.54 $24.60 $48.53
2026-11-15 $0.5395 $1.26 $2.77 $6.02 $12.72 $25.61 $51.86
2026-11-22 $0.4865 $1.18 $2.67 $5.99 $13.01 $26.88 $55.80
2026-11-29 $0.4506 $1.13 $2.64 $6.09 $13.58 $28.71 $60.99
2026-12-06 $0.4188 $1.09 $2.61 $6.19 $14.16 $30.63 $66.50
2026-12-13 $0.3929 $1.05 $2.60 $6.33 $14.83 $32.79 $72.69
2026-12-20 $0.3468 $0.9635 $2.45 $6.13 $14.73 $33.32 $75.52
2026-12-27 $0.3207 $0.9194 $2.40 $6.16 $15.17 $35.04 $81.01
2027-01-03 $0.2922 $0.8646 $2.32 $6.11 $15.40 $36.31 $85.66
2027-01-10 $0.2630 $0.8036 $2.22 $5.99 $15.45 $37.19 $89.49
2027-01-17 $0.2303 $0.7306 $2.08 $5.80 $15.36 $37.89 $93.30
2027-01-24 $0.2076 $0.6831 $2.01 $5.76 $15.66 $39.55 $99.55

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.