SMCI SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$37.99

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$46.60

Bear 68%

$25.83

Bull 68%

$84.32

68% Range Width

125.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $29.04 $31.85 $34.79 $38.12 $41.77 $45.64 $50.08
2026-10-04 $25.74 $29.89 $34.49 $39.98 $46.35 $53.52 $62.20
2026-10-11 $22.94 $27.65 $33.07 $39.78 $47.87 $57.30 $69.16
2026-10-18 $20.86 $25.94 $31.98 $39.70 $49.29 $60.84 $75.82
2026-10-25 $19.18 $24.52 $31.03 $39.57 $50.49 $64.00 $82.02
2026-11-01 $17.97 $23.54 $30.51 $39.87 $52.14 $67.70 $88.97
2026-11-08 $17.11 $22.92 $30.36 $40.58 $54.27 $72.03 $96.87
2026-11-15 $16.52 $22.60 $30.53 $41.67 $56.91 $77.10 $105.93
2026-11-22 $15.54 $21.67 $29.84 $41.53 $57.84 $79.87 $111.96
2026-11-29 $14.56 $20.69 $28.99 $41.09 $58.30 $81.97 $117.10
2026-12-06 $13.35 $19.30 $27.51 $39.66 $57.27 $81.90 $119.12
2026-12-13 $12.91 $18.97 $27.48 $40.29 $59.16 $86.00 $127.26
2026-12-20 $12.56 $18.79 $27.68 $41.32 $61.76 $91.37 $137.71
2026-12-27 $12.45 $18.96 $28.40 $43.14 $65.64 $98.79 $151.63
2027-01-03 $11.80 $18.27 $27.82 $42.97 $66.47 $101.69 $158.78
2027-01-10 $11.23 $17.67 $27.32 $42.87 $67.39 $104.74 $166.27
2027-01-17 $10.70 $17.09 $26.82 $42.73 $68.23 $107.67 $173.69
2027-01-24 $10.31 $16.72 $26.62 $43.06 $69.80 $111.78 $183.14
2027-01-31 $10.05 $16.54 $26.70 $43.82 $72.08 $117.11 $194.80
2027-02-07 $9.90 $16.52 $27.03 $45.00 $75.09 $123.72 $208.85
2027-02-14 $9.48 $16.03 $26.57 $44.85 $75.87 $126.72 $216.98
2027-02-21 $9.01 $15.45 $25.95 $44.38 $76.09 $128.76 $223.55
2027-02-28 $8.38 $14.54 $24.73 $42.84 $74.41 $127.52 $224.38
2027-03-07 $8.19 $14.41 $24.80 $43.51 $76.56 $132.88 $236.95
2027-03-14 $8.07 $14.38 $25.08 $44.62 $79.62 $140.09 $253.44
2027-03-21 $8.09 $14.61 $25.83 $46.60 $84.32 $150.41 $276.10

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.