SMCI SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$24.66

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$26.46

Bear 68%

$14.43

Bull 68%

$49.29

68% Range Width

131.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $18.61 $20.41 $22.29 $24.43 $26.78 $29.28 $32.16
2026-08-09 $15.76 $18.29 $21.12 $24.51 $28.47 $32.95 $38.41
2026-08-16 $14.16 $17.07 $20.46 $24.69 $29.83 $35.90 $43.62
2026-08-23 $13.23 $16.48 $20.37 $25.39 $31.71 $39.43 $49.59
2026-08-30 $12.16 $15.56 $19.76 $25.33 $32.55 $41.63 $53.96
2026-09-06 $11.11 $14.57 $18.95 $24.90 $32.83 $43.06 $57.34
2026-09-13 $9.94 $13.33 $17.70 $23.79 $32.09 $43.06 $58.75
2026-09-20 $9.52 $13.02 $17.65 $24.24 $33.42 $45.85 $64.04
2026-09-27 $9.20 $12.84 $17.74 $24.86 $35.01 $49.03 $70.03
2026-10-04 $9.11 $12.94 $18.21 $26.03 $37.38 $53.41 $77.94
2026-10-11 $8.59 $12.42 $17.77 $25.84 $37.81 $55.01 $81.88
2026-10-18 $8.06 $11.84 $17.22 $25.46 $37.90 $56.12 $85.10
2026-10-25 $7.63 $11.40 $16.86 $25.40 $38.53 $58.14 $89.98
2026-11-01 $7.26 $11.04 $16.60 $25.47 $39.36 $60.51 $95.59
2026-11-08 $6.95 $10.75 $16.44 $25.66 $40.37 $63.21 $101.83
2026-11-15 $6.81 $10.70 $16.62 $26.39 $42.27 $67.38 $110.67
2026-11-22 $6.49 $10.34 $16.32 $26.33 $42.88 $69.50 $116.25
2026-11-29 $6.10 $9.87 $15.80 $25.88 $42.82 $70.52 $120.02
2026-12-06 $5.60 $9.18 $14.88 $24.72 $41.50 $69.38 $119.99
2026-12-13 $5.47 $9.09 $14.94 $25.19 $42.95 $72.94 $128.34
2026-12-20 $5.38 $9.06 $15.10 $25.84 $44.75 $77.18 $138.12
2026-12-27 $5.40 $9.22 $15.57 $27.05 $47.57 $83.34 $151.74
2027-01-03 $5.16 $8.92 $15.26 $26.86 $47.90 $85.11 $157.38
2027-01-10 $4.90 $8.58 $14.85 $26.46 $47.83 $86.16 $161.71
2027-01-17 $4.69 $8.33 $14.60 $26.40 $48.43 $88.58 $169.06
2027-01-24 $4.52 $8.12 $14.43 $26.46 $49.29 $91.56 $177.74

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.