RIOT SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$20.95

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$23.68

Bear 68%

$10.79

Bull 68%

$44.96

68% Range Width

144.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $14.66 $16.63 $18.69 $20.99 $23.48 $26.10 $29.05
2026-10-04 $11.52 $14.27 $17.31 $20.90 $24.99 $29.48 $34.75
2026-10-11 $9.50 $12.60 $16.19 $20.59 $25.79 $31.66 $38.75
2026-10-18 $7.97 $11.25 $15.20 $20.21 $26.30 $33.36 $42.08
2026-10-25 $6.88 $10.28 $14.53 $20.08 $27.00 $35.20 $45.51
2026-11-01 $5.90 $9.33 $13.78 $19.75 $27.37 $36.58 $48.34
2026-11-08 $5.38 $8.94 $13.68 $20.20 $28.68 $39.07 $52.53
2026-11-15 $4.94 $8.60 $13.61 $20.64 $29.95 $41.52 $56.68
2026-11-22 $4.52 $8.23 $13.46 $20.96 $31.03 $43.73 $60.53
2026-11-29 $3.95 $7.59 $12.88 $20.63 $31.25 $44.82 $62.98
2026-12-06 $3.74 $7.49 $13.04 $21.33 $32.82 $47.65 $67.66
2026-12-13 $3.52 $7.33 $13.12 $21.89 $34.20 $50.23 $72.04
2026-12-20 $3.29 $7.14 $13.14 $22.39 $35.53 $52.81 $76.50
2026-12-27 $2.93 $6.70 $12.75 $22.26 $35.99 $54.24 $79.49
2027-01-03 $2.56 $6.21 $12.25 $21.94 $36.14 $55.26 $81.93
2027-01-10 $2.22 $5.73 $11.71 $21.54 $36.16 $56.06 $84.07
2027-01-17 $1.97 $5.38 $11.38 $21.41 $36.54 $57.35 $86.88
2027-01-24 $1.71 $4.98 $10.92 $21.06 $36.59 $58.17 $89.05
2027-01-31 $1.61 $4.89 $10.98 $21.53 $37.84 $60.66 $93.49
2027-02-07 $1.51 $4.80 $11.04 $21.99 $39.09 $63.15 $97.94
2027-02-14 $1.41 $4.67 $11.02 $22.32 $40.12 $65.36 $102.04
2027-02-21 $1.22 $4.34 $10.61 $21.98 $40.15 $66.14 $104.17
2027-02-28 $1.18 $4.36 $10.83 $22.72 $41.80 $69.24 $109.54
2027-03-07 $1.13 $4.33 $10.97 $23.29 $43.23 $72.03 $114.48
2027-03-14 $1.07 $4.27 $11.07 $23.82 $44.61 $74.80 $119.48
2027-03-21 $0.9434 $4.03 $10.79 $23.68 $44.96 $76.11 $122.47

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.