RIOT SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$20.96

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$24.15

Bear 68%

$10.92

Bull 68%

$46.40

68% Range Width

146.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $15.03 $17.04 $19.14 $21.50 $24.07 $26.76 $29.80
2026-08-09 $11.57 $14.34 $17.43 $21.08 $25.26 $29.87 $35.30
2026-08-16 $10.02 $13.26 $17.02 $21.64 $27.11 $33.33 $40.87
2026-08-23 $8.86 $12.41 $16.68 $22.10 $28.72 $36.41 $45.94
2026-08-30 $7.89 $11.64 $16.31 $22.42 $30.04 $39.10 $50.53
2026-09-06 $6.82 $10.62 $15.52 $22.10 $30.51 $40.70 $53.78
2026-09-13 $6.33 $10.30 $15.56 $22.79 $32.20 $43.79 $58.84
2026-09-20 $5.89 $9.99 $15.58 $23.42 $33.81 $46.76 $63.79
2026-09-27 $5.47 $9.68 $15.56 $23.97 $35.28 $49.58 $68.58
2026-10-04 $4.90 $9.07 $15.07 $23.84 $35.84 $51.21 $71.87
2026-10-11 $4.33 $8.42 $14.47 $23.51 $36.09 $52.42 $74.61
2026-10-18 $3.79 $7.76 $13.80 $23.04 $36.11 $53.30 $76.92
2026-10-25 $3.40 $7.31 $13.43 $22.98 $36.71 $54.98 $80.33
2026-11-01 $2.97 $6.75 $12.85 $22.58 $36.81 $55.99 $82.88
2026-11-08 $2.80 $6.62 $12.94 $23.16 $38.30 $58.88 $87.93
2026-11-15 $2.63 $6.47 $12.97 $23.65 $39.65 $61.60 $92.79
2026-11-22 $2.44 $6.27 $12.90 $23.98 $40.77 $64.00 $97.25
2026-11-29 $2.15 $5.83 $12.42 $23.65 $40.90 $65.03 $99.85
2026-12-06 $2.06 $5.80 $12.62 $24.37 $42.60 $68.26 $105.48
2026-12-13 $1.97 $5.76 $12.78 $25.04 $44.22 $71.39 $110.99
2026-12-20 $1.88 $5.68 $12.88 $25.61 $45.70 $74.35 $116.31
2026-12-27 $1.69 $5.38 $12.56 $25.48 $46.10 $75.77 $119.50
2027-01-03 $1.49 $5.03 $12.12 $25.13 $46.16 $76.68 $121.99
2027-01-10 $1.29 $4.66 $11.62 $24.63 $45.96 $77.22 $123.96
2027-01-17 $1.16 $4.42 $11.37 $24.57 $46.47 $78.81 $127.47
2027-01-24 $0.9996 $4.10 $10.92 $24.15 $46.40 $79.57 $129.82

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.