QQQ SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$678.80

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$740.19

Bear 68%

$625.50

Bull 68%

$879.22

68% Range Width

34.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $624.36 $641.15 $657.71 $675.28 $693.38 $711.48 $730.95
2026-08-16 $600.74 $625.83 $650.99 $678.10 $706.49 $735.35 $766.90
2026-08-23 $581.39 $612.40 $643.87 $678.21 $714.63 $752.12 $793.64
2026-08-30 $561.71 $597.06 $633.29 $673.24 $716.05 $760.58 $810.43
2026-09-06 $548.83 $587.98 $628.47 $673.51 $722.22 $773.35 $831.14
2026-09-13 $540.18 $582.83 $627.28 $677.12 $731.47 $789.00 $854.57
2026-09-20 $535.69 $581.75 $630.12 $684.74 $744.77 $808.80 $882.36
2026-09-27 $531.75 $580.96 $632.98 $692.13 $757.60 $827.94 $909.33
2026-10-04 $525.93 $577.82 $633.01 $696.16 $766.53 $842.63 $931.30
2026-10-11 $523.16 $577.83 $636.34 $703.69 $779.21 $861.40 $957.80
2026-10-18 $515.90 $572.62 $633.65 $704.31 $784.00 $871.25 $974.21
2026-10-25 $508.85 $567.43 $630.80 $704.56 $788.21 $880.32 $989.65
2026-11-01 $501.60 $561.99 $627.65 $704.49 $792.14 $889.19 $1,005.08
2026-11-08 $497.27 $559.71 $627.96 $708.26 $800.36 $902.92 $1,026.10
2026-11-15 $490.91 $554.98 $625.35 $708.56 $804.50 $911.91 $1,041.65
2026-11-22 $481.30 $546.34 $618.11 $703.38 $802.17 $913.33 $1,048.31
2026-11-29 $475.60 $542.06 $615.73 $703.67 $806.06 $921.85 $1,063.18
2026-12-06 $472.37 $540.54 $616.44 $707.46 $813.96 $935.00 $1,083.50
2026-12-13 $471.96 $542.22 $620.81 $715.47 $826.78 $953.90 $1,110.69
2026-12-20 $471.50 $543.78 $624.98 $723.24 $839.31 $972.53 $1,137.65
2026-12-27 $468.97 $542.85 $626.19 $727.48 $847.66 $986.23 $1,158.83
2027-01-03 $468.77 $544.62 $630.53 $735.39 $860.38 $1,005.15 $1,186.36
2027-01-10 $464.32 $541.29 $628.80 $736.04 $864.40 $1,013.72 $1,201.47
2027-01-17 $459.80 $537.79 $626.81 $736.30 $867.91 $1,021.65 $1,215.80
2027-01-24 $454.98 $533.97 $624.47 $736.23 $871.13 $1,029.39 $1,230.18
2027-01-31 $452.60 $533.01 $625.50 $740.19 $879.22 $1,043.05 $1,251.86

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.