PYPL SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$56.17

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$55.33

Bear 68%

$43.56

Bull 68%

$74.48

68% Range Width

55.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $49.58 $51.36 $53.16 $55.15 $57.27 $59.48 $61.96
2026-08-09 $47.14 $49.64 $52.28 $55.27 $58.59 $62.17 $66.36
2026-08-16 $45.93 $49.00 $52.32 $56.19 $60.60 $65.54 $71.52
2026-08-23 $44.50 $47.96 $51.75 $56.28 $61.57 $67.65 $75.25
2026-08-30 $42.77 $46.44 $50.53 $55.48 $61.38 $68.31 $77.20
2026-09-06 $41.26 $45.08 $49.39 $54.68 $61.09 $68.75 $78.83
2026-09-13 $40.87 $44.98 $49.68 $55.54 $62.78 $71.64 $83.64
2026-09-20 $40.03 $44.30 $49.24 $55.47 $63.31 $73.07 $86.61
2026-09-27 $39.56 $44.03 $49.26 $55.95 $64.49 $75.36 $90.84
2026-10-04 $39.53 $44.27 $49.89 $57.20 $66.70 $79.07 $97.25
2026-10-11 $39.85 $44.95 $51.07 $59.16 $69.90 $84.28 $106.23
2026-10-18 $38.47 $43.49 $49.53 $57.56 $68.30 $82.80 $105.21
2026-10-25 $36.75 $41.65 $47.59 $55.53 $66.24 $80.87 $103.82
2026-11-01 $35.97 $40.97 $47.09 $55.36 $66.72 $82.55 $108.18
2026-11-08 $35.69 $40.89 $47.34 $56.19 $68.59 $86.37 $116.35
2026-11-15 $35.10 $40.40 $47.03 $56.26 $69.38 $88.62 $122.18
2026-11-22 $34.19 $39.48 $46.13 $55.45 $68.86 $88.82 $124.49
2026-11-29 $33.33 $38.60 $45.25 $54.65 $68.30 $88.90 $126.56
2026-12-06 $33.19 $38.63 $45.57 $55.51 $70.22 $93.04 $136.64
2026-12-13 $32.70 $38.19 $45.25 $55.44 $70.74 $94.93 $142.68
2026-12-20 $32.44 $38.04 $45.30 $55.92 $72.10 $98.31 $152.28
2026-12-27 $32.47 $38.27 $45.88 $57.16 $74.72 $104.10 $168.17
2027-01-03 $32.74 $38.83 $46.92 $59.12 $78.62 $112.57 $192.61
2027-01-10 $31.79 $37.73 $45.61 $57.53 $76.59 $109.91 $188.92
2027-01-17 $30.62 $36.35 $43.97 $55.50 $73.98 $106.36 $183.61
2027-01-24 $30.10 $35.85 $43.56 $55.33 $74.48 $108.84 $194.84

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.