ORCL SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$124.22

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$126.25

Bear 68%

$93.80

Bull 68%

$174.84

68% Range Width

64.2%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $108.81 $113.75 $118.77 $124.24 $130.04 $136.01 $142.62
2026-08-09 $101.24 $108.28 $115.64 $123.90 $132.94 $142.55 $153.57
2026-08-16 $96.96 $105.62 $114.87 $125.52 $137.50 $150.57 $165.99
2026-08-23 $93.40 $103.29 $114.08 $126.77 $141.35 $157.65 $177.35
2026-08-30 $89.72 $100.50 $112.47 $126.79 $143.57 $162.71 $186.38
2026-09-06 $86.65 $98.18 $111.16 $126.94 $145.76 $167.62 $195.20
2026-09-13 $83.67 $95.76 $109.55 $126.57 $147.17 $171.51 $202.80
2026-09-20 $81.33 $93.95 $108.52 $126.75 $149.13 $176.02 $211.17
2026-09-27 $78.91 $91.92 $107.11 $126.34 $150.29 $179.46 $218.25
2026-10-04 $77.68 $91.25 $107.28 $127.81 $153.72 $185.78 $229.11
2026-10-11 $75.47 $89.29 $105.77 $127.10 $154.35 $188.50 $235.36
2026-10-18 $72.33 $86.09 $102.61 $124.20 $152.06 $187.35 $236.37
2026-10-25 $70.96 $85.11 $102.29 $124.99 $154.65 $192.78 $246.64
2026-11-01 $69.29 $83.71 $101.37 $124.96 $156.17 $196.83 $255.20
2026-11-08 $68.54 $83.42 $101.85 $126.73 $160.09 $204.20 $268.59
2026-11-15 $67.64 $82.91 $102.00 $128.05 $163.41 $210.83 $281.20
2026-11-22 $66.26 $81.72 $101.22 $128.10 $164.97 $215.06 $290.52
2026-11-29 $65.00 $80.66 $100.57 $128.26 $166.67 $219.49 $300.26
2026-12-06 $63.60 $79.36 $99.55 $127.88 $167.58 $222.80 $308.44
2026-12-13 $62.49 $78.42 $98.97 $128.06 $169.25 $227.23 $318.43
2026-12-20 $61.22 $77.21 $98.00 $127.65 $170.04 $230.37 $326.55
2026-12-27 $60.71 $77.02 $98.38 $129.14 $173.57 $237.63 $341.33
2027-01-03 $59.43 $75.74 $97.24 $128.42 $173.88 $240.07 $348.59
2027-01-10 $57.39 $73.39 $94.58 $125.49 $170.82 $237.35 $347.45
2027-01-17 $56.65 $72.86 $94.47 $126.28 $173.44 $243.52 $361.34
2027-01-24 $55.65 $71.93 $93.80 $126.25 $174.84 $247.90 $372.53

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.