ORCL SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$145.90

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$150.13

Bear 68%

$110.24

Bull 68%

$209.75

68% Range Width

66.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $124.58 $130.71 $136.94 $143.75 $150.98 $158.45 $166.74
2026-10-04 $116.85 $125.64 $134.84 $145.22 $156.61 $168.76 $182.72
2026-10-11 $109.53 $119.96 $131.14 $144.05 $158.57 $174.47 $193.23
2026-10-18 $101.77 $113.09 $125.44 $139.98 $156.67 $175.33 $197.84
2026-10-25 $98.48 $110.88 $124.65 $141.12 $160.40 $182.37 $209.45
2026-11-01 $96.32 $109.75 $124.87 $143.26 $165.16 $190.56 $222.49
2026-11-08 $94.80 $109.20 $125.65 $145.95 $170.51 $199.48 $236.57
2026-11-15 $92.55 $107.65 $125.10 $146.93 $173.73 $205.83 $247.62
2026-11-22 $90.28 $105.95 $124.28 $147.47 $176.32 $211.38 $257.76
2026-11-29 $87.99 $104.11 $123.16 $147.55 $178.27 $216.10 $266.91
2026-12-06 $85.84 $102.36 $122.06 $147.56 $180.05 $220.59 $275.80
2026-12-13 $83.34 $100.07 $120.21 $146.52 $180.42 $223.22 $282.28
2026-12-20 $80.84 $97.81 $118.44 $145.70 $181.23 $226.69 $290.37
2026-12-27 $79.72 $97.26 $118.80 $147.58 $185.60 $234.93 $305.16
2027-01-03 $77.35 $95.02 $116.92 $146.48 $185.97 $237.84 $312.75
2027-01-10 $73.79 $91.16 $112.85 $142.36 $182.14 $234.93 $312.05
2027-01-17 $72.70 $90.45 $112.81 $143.54 $185.43 $241.75 $325.23
2027-01-24 $72.11 $90.35 $113.54 $145.73 $190.14 $250.62 $341.65
2027-01-31 $71.77 $90.56 $114.66 $148.47 $195.66 $260.77 $360.30
2027-02-07 $70.77 $89.85 $114.54 $149.48 $198.76 $267.57 $374.22
2027-02-14 $69.65 $88.95 $114.11 $150.02 $201.20 $273.46 $386.97
2027-02-21 $68.40 $87.85 $113.37 $150.11 $202.95 $278.37 $398.39
2027-02-28 $67.19 $86.75 $112.60 $150.11 $204.56 $283.10 $409.65
2027-03-07 $65.65 $85.17 $111.13 $149.06 $204.58 $285.43 $417.19
2027-03-14 $64.10 $83.60 $109.73 $148.21 $205.07 $288.79 $427.01
2027-03-21 $63.55 $83.41 $110.24 $150.13 $209.75 $298.66 $447.79

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.