NVDA SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$205.28

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$269.90

Bear 68%

$169.33

Bull 68%

$436.92

68% Range Width

99.1%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $171.49 $182.63 $194.03 $206.57 $219.98 $233.89 $249.42
2026-08-09 $152.82 $169.49 $187.28 $207.72 $230.56 $255.32 $284.22
2026-08-16 $141.29 $161.68 $184.19 $210.91 $241.81 $276.49 $318.43
2026-08-23 $131.64 $154.54 $180.50 $212.19 $249.89 $293.42 $347.63
2026-08-30 $122.37 $146.81 $175.17 $210.60 $253.80 $304.92 $370.21
2026-09-06 $116.19 $142.12 $172.85 $212.05 $260.90 $319.99 $397.24
2026-09-13 $111.30 $138.57 $171.48 $214.28 $268.69 $335.87 $425.54
2026-09-20 $108.50 $137.32 $172.71 $219.57 $280.27 $356.66 $460.68
2026-09-27 $106.13 $136.40 $174.18 $225.05 $292.12 $378.04 $497.26
2026-10-04 $103.62 $135.09 $174.97 $229.54 $302.68 $397.98 $532.57
2026-10-11 $101.34 $133.92 $175.83 $234.01 $313.24 $418.14 $568.85
2026-10-18 $97.15 $130.00 $172.81 $233.08 $316.35 $428.27 $591.59
2026-10-25 $94.14 $127.63 $171.91 $235.14 $323.88 $445.05 $624.85
2026-11-01 $91.06 $125.06 $170.61 $236.61 $330.64 $461.03 $657.74
2026-11-08 $88.98 $123.74 $170.95 $240.31 $340.60 $481.82 $698.35
2026-11-15 $86.31 $121.46 $169.81 $241.79 $347.35 $498.17 $733.03
2026-11-22 $82.77 $117.78 $166.51 $239.97 $349.13 $507.25 $757.09
2026-11-29 $80.55 $115.89 $165.66 $241.64 $356.03 $524.01 $793.35
2026-12-06 $78.74 $114.51 $165.47 $244.20 $364.29 $543.03 $833.75
2026-12-13 $78.05 $114.73 $167.60 $250.28 $378.05 $570.79 $888.86
2026-12-20 $77.45 $115.05 $169.86 $256.59 $392.33 $599.82 $947.15
2026-12-27 $76.57 $114.89 $171.36 $261.75 $404.97 $626.73 $1,003.08
2027-01-03 $75.72 $114.73 $172.84 $266.90 $417.72 $654.21 $1,061.04
2027-01-10 $73.33 $112.12 $170.44 $265.83 $420.48 $665.75 $1,092.98
2027-01-17 $71.75 $110.79 $170.10 $268.21 $429.19 $687.77 $1,144.39
2027-01-24 $70.04 $109.20 $169.33 $269.90 $436.92 $708.61 $1,194.98

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.