NVDA SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$215.14

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$281.48

Bear 68%

$180.58

Bull 68%

$443.11

68% Range Width

93.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $181.27 $192.62 $204.20 $216.89 $230.41 $244.38 $259.92
2026-10-04 $164.30 $181.50 $199.77 $220.61 $243.75 $268.65 $297.51
2026-10-11 $152.92 $174.08 $197.24 $224.49 $255.73 $290.44 $331.99
2026-10-18 $141.47 $165.03 $191.47 $223.41 $260.97 $303.82 $356.50
2026-10-25 $133.27 $158.77 $188.03 $224.15 $267.61 $318.32 $382.13
2026-11-01 $127.67 $154.98 $186.94 $227.17 $276.57 $335.40 $411.00
2026-11-08 $123.15 $152.07 $186.52 $230.66 $285.88 $352.88 $440.65
2026-11-15 $118.00 $148.01 $184.33 $231.65 $291.87 $366.20 $465.30
2026-11-22 $112.23 $142.82 $180.39 $230.11 $294.38 $374.98 $484.24
2026-11-29 $108.65 $140.16 $179.44 $232.16 $301.36 $389.47 $510.81
2026-12-06 $105.33 $137.65 $178.48 $234.05 $308.04 $403.62 $537.22
2026-12-13 $103.39 $136.81 $179.58 $238.57 $318.20 $422.51 $570.45
2026-12-20 $101.61 $136.23 $181.15 $243.95 $329.99 $444.36 $609.08
2026-12-27 $99.74 $135.46 $182.41 $248.98 $341.48 $466.25 $648.67
2027-01-03 $97.84 $134.53 $183.39 $253.58 $352.47 $487.74 $688.43
2027-01-10 $94.03 $130.79 $180.33 $252.39 $355.24 $497.79 $712.22
2027-01-17 $91.17 $128.25 $178.81 $253.24 $360.83 $511.88 $742.16
2027-01-24 $89.36 $127.10 $179.14 $256.68 $370.14 $531.48 $780.73
2027-01-31 $87.83 $126.26 $179.87 $260.64 $380.29 $552.54 $822.10
2027-02-07 $85.51 $124.19 $178.70 $261.77 $386.24 $567.54 $854.82
2027-02-14 $82.46 $120.92 $175.69 $260.02 $387.77 $575.97 $877.73
2027-02-21 $80.78 $119.60 $175.45 $262.35 $395.47 $593.80 $915.60
2027-02-28 $79.12 $118.26 $175.12 $264.50 $402.90 $611.38 $953.62
2027-03-07 $78.37 $118.24 $176.74 $269.64 $415.04 $636.51 $1,004.30
2027-03-14 $77.72 $118.44 $178.82 $275.76 $429.26 $665.83 $1,063.68
2027-03-21 $76.92 $118.41 $180.58 $281.48 $443.11 $695.19 $1,124.48

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.