MSTR SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$100.57

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$115.71

Bear 68%

$56.76

Bull 68%

$248.53

68% Range Width

165.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $72.58 $81.06 $90.23 $100.86 $112.89 $126.09 $141.69
2026-08-09 $59.35 $70.47 $83.30 $99.24 $118.58 $141.39 $170.43
2026-08-16 $53.60 $66.63 $82.44 $103.13 $129.64 $162.69 $207.32
2026-08-23 $48.10 $62.03 $79.62 $103.63 $135.80 $177.79 $237.32
2026-08-30 $43.43 $57.78 $76.52 $103.04 $139.98 $190.14 $264.38
2026-09-06 $39.82 $54.45 $74.16 $102.95 $144.45 $202.90 $292.83
2026-09-13 $38.05 $53.39 $74.66 $106.70 $154.42 $224.00 $335.17
2026-09-20 $36.08 $51.84 $74.25 $108.96 $162.26 $242.49 $375.23
2026-09-27 $34.52 $50.69 $74.26 $111.74 $170.96 $262.86 $420.09
2026-10-04 $32.70 $49.00 $73.29 $112.85 $177.05 $279.53 $460.46
2026-10-11 $30.95 $47.24 $72.05 $113.38 $182.15 $294.92 $500.02
2026-10-18 $28.67 $44.50 $69.06 $110.81 $181.86 $301.22 $524.27
2026-10-25 $26.75 $42.23 $66.71 $109.19 $183.17 $310.59 $555.49
2026-11-01 $24.92 $39.98 $64.23 $107.15 $183.55 $318.36 $584.54
2026-11-08 $24.46 $39.94 $65.35 $111.34 $195.23 $347.26 $656.67
2026-11-15 $23.36 $38.74 $64.45 $111.88 $200.31 $364.44 $707.74
2026-11-22 $22.15 $37.27 $62.97 $111.24 $203.11 $377.51 $751.83
2026-11-29 $21.13 $36.06 $61.84 $111.14 $206.87 $392.70 $801.89
2026-12-06 $20.83 $36.09 $62.91 $115.21 $219.03 $425.50 $893.20
2026-12-13 $20.30 $35.68 $63.15 $117.68 $228.17 $453.02 $976.05
2026-12-20 $19.88 $35.44 $63.66 $120.70 $238.67 $484.26 $1,070.99
2026-12-27 $19.24 $34.74 $63.27 $121.91 $245.49 $508.31 $1,152.04
2027-01-03 $18.56 $33.92 $62.60 $122.49 $251.02 $530.01 $1,230.03
2027-01-10 $17.51 $32.34 $60.37 $119.69 $249.02 $534.77 $1,266.96
2027-01-17 $16.62 $31.04 $58.65 $117.93 $249.37 $545.35 $1,321.08
2027-01-24 $15.73 $29.70 $56.76 $115.71 $248.53 $553.21 $1,369.52

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.