MSTR SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$131.44

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$159.40

Bear 68%

$75.59

Bull 68%

$351.84

68% Range Width

173.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $96.08 $107.46 $119.73 $133.97 $150.05 $167.66 $188.45
2026-10-04 $80.15 $95.45 $113.09 $134.99 $161.53 $192.74 $232.37
2026-10-11 $69.49 $86.85 $107.94 $135.54 $170.90 $214.90 $274.15
2026-10-18 $60.16 $78.19 $101.02 $132.24 $174.10 $228.68 $305.89
2026-10-25 $53.45 $71.83 $95.97 $130.23 $178.03 $242.97 $338.89
2026-11-01 $47.95 $66.36 $91.32 $127.94 $180.87 $255.45 $370.00
2026-11-08 $45.61 $64.91 $91.85 $132.66 $193.68 $282.73 $424.73
2026-11-15 $42.57 $62.10 $90.13 $133.80 $201.12 $302.55 $469.98
2026-11-22 $39.68 $59.22 $87.95 $133.94 $206.86 $320.06 $513.02
2026-11-29 $37.14 $56.63 $85.97 $134.08 $212.45 $337.57 $557.51
2026-12-06 $35.96 $55.99 $86.85 $138.73 $225.51 $368.04 $626.42
2026-12-13 $34.49 $54.77 $86.69 $141.58 $235.76 $394.60 $691.09
2026-12-20 $33.22 $53.82 $86.93 $145.24 $247.84 $425.67 $767.69
2026-12-27 $31.61 $52.16 $85.89 $146.60 $256.05 $450.68 $835.88
2027-01-03 $30.02 $50.41 $84.54 $147.28 $263.01 $473.99 $903.22
2027-01-10 $27.84 $47.50 $80.98 $143.68 $261.81 $482.06 $941.51
2027-01-17 $26.08 $45.20 $78.31 $141.49 $262.98 $494.58 $989.87
2027-01-24 $24.44 $42.97 $75.61 $138.99 $263.30 $505.38 $1,035.67
2027-01-31 $24.04 $42.98 $76.92 $144.15 $278.96 $547.81 $1,152.87
2027-02-07 $23.12 $41.94 $76.23 $145.40 $286.87 $575.23 $1,240.41
2027-02-14 $22.12 $40.69 $75.05 $145.55 $292.53 $598.44 $1,321.05
2027-02-21 $21.19 $39.51 $73.92 $145.70 $298.18 $622.07 $1,405.18
2027-02-28 $20.91 $39.56 $75.17 $150.79 $314.70 $670.68 $1,553.58
2027-03-07 $20.41 $39.15 $75.47 $153.91 $327.21 $711.55 $1,688.01
2027-03-14 $19.99 $38.89 $76.10 $157.91 $342.25 $760.17 $1,849.19
2027-03-21 $19.32 $38.09 $75.59 $159.40 $351.84 $797.22 $1,985.98

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.