MSFT SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$497.67

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$536.46

Bear 68%

$459.42

Bull 68%

$619.02

68% Range Width

29.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $466.50 $478.32 $489.78 $501.71 $513.78 $525.62 $538.12
2026-10-04 $450.50 $468.99 $487.03 $505.94 $525.18 $544.19 $564.36
2026-10-11 $440.89 $464.15 $486.96 $510.99 $535.56 $559.92 $585.88
2026-10-18 $428.12 $455.12 $481.70 $509.82 $538.68 $567.40 $598.12
2026-10-25 $418.68 $448.90 $478.78 $510.48 $543.13 $575.73 $610.69
2026-11-01 $412.18 $445.32 $478.19 $513.17 $549.30 $585.47 $624.36
2026-11-08 $404.76 $440.48 $476.00 $513.93 $553.21 $592.63 $635.11
2026-11-15 $397.81 $435.87 $473.85 $514.50 $556.70 $599.15 $645.00
2026-11-22 $391.35 $431.57 $471.82 $515.02 $559.96 $605.27 $654.31
2026-11-29 $384.41 $426.60 $468.94 $514.49 $562.00 $609.98 $662.01
2026-12-06 $377.18 $421.19 $465.46 $513.21 $563.11 $613.61 $668.47
2026-12-13 $372.05 $417.85 $464.03 $513.95 $566.23 $619.23 $676.90
2026-12-20 $368.57 $416.31 $464.57 $516.84 $571.70 $627.41 $688.12
2026-12-27 $366.39 $416.09 $466.44 $521.09 $578.55 $636.99 $700.78
2027-01-03 $365.17 $416.79 $469.22 $526.22 $586.25 $647.40 $714.23
2027-01-10 $358.84 $411.98 $466.08 $525.03 $587.23 $650.71 $720.19
2027-01-17 $354.28 $408.97 $464.77 $525.70 $590.11 $655.93 $728.08
2027-01-24 $351.61 $407.90 $465.46 $528.42 $595.08 $663.31 $738.18
2027-01-31 $347.49 $405.22 $464.37 $529.20 $597.95 $668.41 $745.84
2027-02-07 $343.35 $402.45 $463.14 $529.77 $600.54 $673.19 $753.11
2027-02-14 $339.33 $399.74 $461.91 $530.30 $603.05 $677.82 $760.18
2027-02-21 $334.59 $396.20 $459.75 $529.77 $604.38 $681.17 $765.86
2027-02-28 $329.35 $392.07 $456.90 $528.46 $604.84 $683.57 $770.49
2027-03-07 $325.90 $389.82 $456.02 $529.21 $607.45 $688.19 $777.44
2027-03-14 $323.96 $389.29 $457.07 $532.15 $612.50 $695.51 $787.37
2027-03-21 $323.14 $389.96 $459.42 $536.46 $619.02 $704.41 $798.98

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.