MSFT SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$400.02

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$417.17

Bear 68%

$353.01

Bull 68%

$486.58

68% Range Width

32.0%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $371.11 $381.04 $390.67 $400.72 $410.89 $420.88 $431.44
2026-08-09 $353.76 $369.00 $383.89 $399.54 $415.49 $431.27 $448.05
2026-08-16 $342.15 $361.31 $380.15 $400.04 $420.44 $440.71 $462.37
2026-08-23 $333.54 $355.88 $377.96 $401.37 $425.48 $449.55 $475.36
2026-08-30 $324.74 $349.74 $374.55 $400.97 $428.28 $455.63 $485.08
2026-09-06 $316.66 $343.98 $371.20 $400.29 $430.46 $460.78 $493.50
2026-09-13 $309.29 $338.68 $368.06 $399.57 $432.36 $465.40 $501.16
2026-09-20 $303.60 $334.91 $366.33 $400.12 $435.39 $471.02 $509.67
2026-09-27 $300.07 $333.25 $366.63 $402.65 $440.33 $478.49 $519.99
2026-10-04 $297.91 $332.90 $368.20 $406.39 $446.43 $487.07 $531.34
2026-10-11 $296.78 $333.53 $370.72 $411.03 $453.38 $496.46 $543.46
2026-10-18 $291.51 $329.68 $368.42 $410.52 $454.85 $500.03 $549.42
2026-10-25 $285.90 $325.51 $365.82 $409.75 $456.13 $503.49 $555.37
2026-11-01 $279.92 $320.86 $362.66 $408.33 $456.66 $506.11 $560.39
2026-11-08 $275.74 $318.05 $361.36 $408.81 $459.12 $510.70 $567.42
2026-11-15 $272.47 $316.13 $360.94 $410.14 $462.43 $516.13 $575.27
2026-11-22 $267.94 $312.78 $358.94 $409.74 $463.83 $519.49 $580.89
2026-11-29 $263.35 $309.30 $356.73 $409.05 $464.87 $522.42 $586.00
2026-12-06 $258.89 $305.90 $354.54 $408.32 $465.82 $525.21 $590.91
2026-12-13 $255.60 $303.70 $353.60 $408.88 $468.10 $529.35 $597.22
2026-12-20 $254.01 $303.31 $354.55 $411.44 $472.47 $535.68 $605.81
2026-12-27 $253.46 $304.02 $356.67 $415.22 $478.12 $543.35 $615.81
2027-01-03 $253.70 $305.55 $359.66 $419.90 $484.72 $552.01 $626.83
2027-01-10 $249.96 $302.69 $357.85 $419.39 $485.71 $554.67 $631.43
2027-01-17 $245.86 $299.49 $355.73 $418.61 $486.51 $557.22 $636.04
2027-01-24 $241.31 $295.76 $353.01 $417.17 $486.58 $558.98 $639.80

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.