MCHP SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$70.84

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$71.11

Bear 68%

$47.21

Bull 68%

$91.39

68% Range Width

62.1%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $61.67 $64.71 $67.55 $70.42 $73.23 $75.91 $78.65
2026-10-04 $56.60 $61.50 $66.02 $70.51 $74.86 $78.96 $83.12
2026-10-11 $52.01 $58.65 $64.67 $70.58 $76.24 $81.54 $86.89
2026-10-18 $47.84 $56.15 $63.56 $70.74 $77.57 $83.91 $90.28
2026-10-25 $42.99 $53.02 $61.78 $70.18 $78.09 $85.39 $92.68
2026-11-01 $38.22 $50.01 $60.08 $69.62 $78.52 $86.69 $94.81
2026-11-08 $34.29 $47.79 $59.07 $69.62 $79.41 $88.35 $97.20
2026-11-15 $30.22 $45.51 $57.97 $69.50 $80.11 $89.75 $99.28
2026-11-22 $24.51 $42.09 $55.87 $68.41 $79.87 $90.23 $100.42
2026-11-29 $20.92 $40.47 $55.32 $68.70 $80.84 $91.79 $102.55
2026-12-06 $17.71 $39.25 $55.09 $69.22 $82.00 $93.49 $104.75
2026-12-13 $14.32 $38.05 $54.85 $69.71 $83.08 $95.07 $106.80
2026-12-20 $9.83 $36.51 $54.34 $69.95 $83.92 $96.43 $108.64
2026-12-27 $5.16 $35.38 $54.16 $70.45 $84.99 $97.96 $110.61
2027-01-03 N/A $34.05 $53.81 $70.78 $85.86 $99.29 $112.38
2027-01-10 N/A $32.76 $53.49 $71.12 $86.72 $100.58 $114.07
2027-01-17 N/A $30.30 $52.27 $70.66 $86.84 $101.18 $115.10
2027-01-24 N/A $27.73 $51.01 $70.17 $86.91 $101.71 $116.05
2027-01-31 N/A $26.00 $50.41 $70.22 $87.46 $102.66 $117.37
2027-02-07 N/A $24.02 $49.65 $70.12 $87.85 $103.45 $118.53
2027-02-14 N/A $20.22 $47.74 $69.06 $87.38 $103.44 $118.92
2027-02-21 N/A $18.82 $47.47 $69.35 $88.10 $104.50 $120.31
2027-02-28 N/A $17.91 $47.50 $69.88 $89.01 $105.73 $121.83
2027-03-07 N/A $16.92 $47.49 $70.36 $89.87 $106.90 $123.29
2027-03-14 N/A $15.36 $47.18 $70.61 $90.52 $107.88 $124.58
2027-03-21 N/A $14.34 $47.21 $71.11 $91.39 $109.06 $126.04

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.