MCHP SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$81.94

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$82.54

Bear 68%

$63.83

Bull 68%

$99.48

68% Range Width

43.2%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $72.90 $75.78 $78.50 $81.25 $83.96 $86.55 $89.22
2026-08-09 $67.14 $71.83 $76.19 $80.57 $84.84 $88.89 $93.04
2026-08-16 $63.18 $69.30 $74.94 $80.56 $86.01 $91.15 $96.37
2026-08-23 $59.80 $67.16 $73.89 $80.54 $86.95 $92.97 $99.07
2026-08-30 $55.68 $64.24 $71.98 $79.58 $86.86 $93.66 $100.54
2026-09-06 $53.30 $62.89 $71.50 $79.89 $87.90 $95.37 $102.89
2026-09-13 $51.36 $61.91 $71.29 $80.40 $89.07 $97.12 $105.22
2026-09-20 $49.62 $61.07 $71.18 $80.95 $90.20 $98.80 $107.42
2026-09-27 $47.65 $59.98 $70.80 $81.20 $91.02 $100.12 $109.23
2026-10-04 $46.12 $59.28 $70.74 $81.72 $92.06 $101.62 $111.18
2026-10-11 $44.40 $58.40 $70.49 $82.03 $92.87 $102.86 $112.85
2026-10-18 $42.76 $57.57 $70.27 $82.34 $93.65 $104.06 $114.44
2026-10-25 $40.36 $56.11 $69.49 $82.14 $93.95 $104.81 $115.61
2026-11-01 $37.39 $54.20 $68.30 $81.55 $93.87 $105.17 $116.41
2026-11-08 $35.29 $53.04 $67.78 $81.56 $94.34 $106.04 $117.66
2026-11-15 $33.16 $51.88 $67.24 $81.54 $94.77 $106.85 $118.84
2026-11-22 $29.58 $49.57 $65.69 $80.58 $94.31 $106.81 $119.18
2026-11-29 $27.95 $48.86 $65.54 $80.89 $95.01 $107.85 $120.56
2026-12-06 $26.67 $48.43 $65.63 $81.40 $95.89 $109.05 $122.05
2026-12-13 $25.48 $48.07 $65.76 $81.94 $96.77 $110.24 $123.53
2026-12-20 $23.83 $47.37 $65.59 $82.19 $97.38 $111.15 $124.75
2026-12-27 $22.65 $47.04 $65.73 $82.71 $98.22 $112.28 $126.15
2027-01-03 $21.12 $46.46 $65.65 $83.02 $98.86 $113.21 $127.34
2027-01-10 $19.58 $45.89 $65.57 $83.32 $99.49 $114.11 $128.51
2027-01-17 $16.88 $44.62 $64.92 $83.13 $99.67 $114.60 $129.30
2027-01-24 $13.09 $42.82 $63.83 $82.54 $99.48 $114.75 $129.76

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.