MARA SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$11.41

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$12.86

Bear 68%

$3.93

Bull 68%

$27.39

68% Range Width

182.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $6.67 $8.21 $9.84 $11.69 $13.71 $15.84 $18.23
2026-10-04 $4.66 $6.68 $8.98 $11.72 $14.85 $18.27 $22.25
2026-10-11 $3.45 $5.66 $8.32 $11.64 $15.55 $19.92 $25.10
2026-10-18 $2.51 $4.78 $7.69 $11.46 $16.03 $21.24 $27.52
2026-10-25 $1.66 $3.83 $6.82 $10.86 $15.91 $21.80 $28.99
2026-11-01 $1.08 $3.13 $6.18 $10.47 $15.97 $22.49 $30.58
2026-11-08 $0.8116 $2.84 $6.04 $10.69 $16.76 $24.04 $33.13
2026-11-15 $0.5733 $2.53 $5.84 $10.80 $17.37 $25.36 $35.40
2026-11-22 $0.4094 $2.31 $5.74 $11.01 $18.12 $26.82 $37.84
2026-11-29 $0.2523 $2.03 $5.51 $11.01 $18.56 $27.90 $39.81
2026-12-06 $0.2029 $2.01 $5.68 $11.60 $19.76 $29.92 $42.90
2026-12-13 $0.1319 $1.87 $5.65 $11.87 $20.55 $31.41 $45.36
2026-12-20 $0.0859 $1.79 $5.71 $12.29 $21.55 $33.20 $48.23
2026-12-27 $0.0307 $1.56 $5.49 $12.28 $21.97 $34.26 $50.19
2027-01-03 $0.0035 $1.34 $5.25 $12.20 $22.29 $35.18 $51.99
2027-01-10 N/A $1.11 $4.94 $12.02 $22.44 $35.88 $53.50
2027-01-17 N/A $0.8069 $4.40 $11.41 $21.98 $35.78 $54.01
2027-01-24 N/A $0.5936 $4.00 $11.00 $21.78 $35.99 $54.90
2027-01-31 N/A $0.5364 $3.98 $11.23 $22.48 $37.38 $57.24
2027-02-07 N/A $0.4620 $3.90 $11.34 $23.00 $38.52 $59.29
2027-02-14 N/A $0.4150 $3.89 $11.56 $23.68 $39.88 $61.60
2027-02-21 N/A $0.3372 $3.75 $11.56 $24.04 $40.81 $63.37
2027-02-28 N/A $0.3568 $3.95 $12.16 $25.27 $42.89 $66.60
2027-03-07 N/A $0.3282 $3.97 $12.44 $26.03 $44.35 $69.04
2027-03-14 N/A $0.3191 $4.07 $12.87 $27.04 $46.17 $71.96
2027-03-21 N/A $0.2519 $3.93 $12.86 $27.39 $47.11 $73.79

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.