MARA SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$12.06

Base Path by Jan 24, 2027

$12.33

Bear 68%

$3.57

Bull 68%

$26.82

68% Range Width

188.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-02 $6.53 $8.07 $9.71 $11.57 $13.60 $15.74 $18.15
2026-08-09 $4.23 $6.18 $8.43 $11.12 $14.21 $17.60 $21.54
2026-08-16 $3.26 $5.45 $8.11 $11.43 $15.36 $19.76 $24.98
2026-08-23 $2.46 $4.75 $7.69 $11.52 $16.16 $21.46 $27.84
2026-08-30 $1.90 $4.24 $7.43 $11.70 $17.01 $23.16 $30.66
2026-09-06 $1.41 $3.73 $7.08 $11.72 $17.60 $24.53 $33.06
2026-09-13 $1.19 $3.59 $7.20 $12.31 $18.89 $26.69 $36.37
2026-09-20 $0.9338 $3.33 $7.12 $12.62 $19.79 $28.39 $39.13
2026-09-27 $0.7585 $3.16 $7.15 $13.05 $20.85 $30.27 $42.09
2026-10-04 $0.5271 $2.82 $6.87 $13.04 $21.31 $31.41 $44.16
2026-10-11 $0.3389 $2.48 $6.56 $12.96 $21.68 $32.41 $46.06
2026-10-18 $0.1855 $2.13 $6.19 $12.77 $21.86 $33.18 $47.66
2026-10-25 $0.0523 $1.66 $5.55 $12.15 $21.50 $33.27 $48.47
2026-11-01 $0.0036 $1.31 $5.06 $11.72 $21.35 $33.62 $49.58
2026-11-08 N/A $1.22 $5.07 $12.03 $22.19 $35.22 $52.22
2026-11-15 N/A $1.07 $4.93 $12.12 $22.73 $36.42 $54.36
2026-11-22 N/A $0.9683 $4.87 $12.31 $23.41 $37.80 $56.72
2026-11-29 N/A $0.8323 $4.71 $12.33 $23.83 $38.84 $58.66
2026-12-06 N/A $0.8465 $4.91 $12.94 $25.09 $40.96 $61.94
2026-12-13 N/A $0.7929 $4.93 $13.25 $25.92 $42.53 $64.53
2026-12-20 N/A $0.7736 $5.04 $13.70 $26.95 $44.36 $67.45
2026-12-27 N/A $0.6589 $4.87 $13.69 $27.31 $45.32 $69.28
2027-01-03 N/A $0.5448 $4.68 $13.61 $27.58 $46.14 $70.94
2027-01-10 N/A $0.4233 $4.42 $13.40 $27.65 $46.71 $72.27
2027-01-17 N/A $0.2581 $3.93 $12.78 $27.10 $46.48 $72.63
2027-01-24 N/A $0.1522 $3.57 $12.33 $26.82 $46.59 $73.40

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.