KEYS SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$313.68

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$397.20

Bear 68%

$274.61

Bull 68%

$634.87

68% Range Width

90.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $271.77 $286.15 $301.09 $317.81 $336.03 $355.35 $377.44
2026-08-16 $257.51 $278.53 $301.31 $328.01 $358.62 $392.89 $434.49
2026-08-23 $242.47 $266.97 $294.31 $327.38 $366.70 $412.50 $470.68
2026-08-30 $227.16 $253.35 $283.19 $320.14 $365.30 $419.54 $491.02
2026-09-06 $217.86 $245.77 $278.17 $319.18 $370.58 $434.17 $520.96
2026-09-13 $212.69 $242.56 $277.87 $323.50 $382.14 $456.87 $562.66
2026-09-20 $209.41 $241.27 $279.60 $330.14 $396.71 $484.09 $612.52
2026-09-27 $206.30 $239.92 $281.00 $336.20 $410.62 $511.12 $664.42
2026-10-04 $203.10 $238.22 $281.75 $341.25 $423.26 $537.06 $717.09
2026-10-11 $198.98 $235.09 $280.42 $343.34 $431.74 $557.49 $763.21
2026-10-18 $193.90 $230.50 $276.92 $342.20 $435.46 $571.01 $799.52
2026-10-25 $189.25 $226.26 $273.67 $341.15 $439.10 $584.46 $836.86
2026-11-01 $187.13 $225.61 $275.61 $348.09 $455.86 $620.98 $921.39
2026-11-08 $186.80 $227.31 $280.81 $360.00 $481.03 $673.62 $1,044.52
2026-11-15 $182.14 $222.99 $277.50 $359.28 $486.61 $694.52 $1,111.33
2026-11-22 $175.29 $215.41 $269.32 $350.90 $479.46 $692.94 $1,132.57
2026-11-29 $171.24 $211.52 $266.15 $349.80 $483.81 $711.66 $1,199.29
2026-12-06 $169.36 $210.54 $267.02 $354.78 $498.37 $750.02 $1,316.73
2026-12-13 $168.41 $210.78 $269.59 $362.47 $517.94 $799.87 $1,473.44
2026-12-20 $167.30 $210.73 $271.70 $369.50 $536.87 $850.83 $1,648.18
2026-12-27 $165.90 $210.21 $273.08 $375.37 $554.18 $900.79 $1,837.10
2027-01-03 $163.65 $208.37 $272.38 $377.79 $565.39 $939.49 $2,007.66
2027-01-10 $160.54 $205.18 $269.51 $376.47 $569.54 $963.43 $2,141.18
2027-01-17 $157.61 $202.16 $266.80 $375.24 $573.74 $987.98 $2,286.36
2027-01-24 $156.62 $202.22 $269.14 $383.32 $597.71 $1,064.60 $2,670.40
2027-01-31 $156.92 $204.20 $274.61 $397.20 $634.87 $1,181.75 $3,321.18

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.