KEYS SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$322.65

Base Path by Mar 21, 2027

$403.30

Bear 68%

$272.85

Bull 68%

$681.94

68% Range Width

101.4%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 $275.83 $291.21 $307.33 $325.52 $345.56 $367.05 $391.93
2026-10-04 $256.85 $278.58 $302.41 $330.67 $363.58 $401.05 $447.47
2026-10-11 $243.22 $268.67 $297.46 $332.85 $375.77 $426.95 $493.90
2026-10-18 $231.07 $258.79 $290.89 $331.46 $382.29 $445.26 $531.55
2026-10-25 $221.13 $250.46 $285.12 $329.95 $387.73 $461.76 $567.64
2026-11-01 $218.55 $250.56 $289.21 $340.49 $408.73 $499.67 $636.54
2026-11-08 $217.43 $252.19 $295.02 $353.32 $433.40 $544.55 $721.30
2026-11-15 $209.72 $245.05 $289.17 $350.20 $435.85 $558.05 $760.04
2026-11-22 $200.34 $235.31 $279.41 $341.13 $429.11 $557.21 $775.29
2026-11-29 $195.22 $230.80 $276.20 $340.70 $434.48 $574.73 $823.05
2026-12-06 $192.93 $229.81 $277.52 $346.50 $449.18 $607.79 $902.80
2026-12-13 $190.50 $228.49 $278.25 $351.39 $462.75 $640.26 $987.22
2026-12-20 $187.84 $227.16 $279.45 $357.86 $480.59 $684.21 $1,109.13
2026-12-27 $185.13 $225.66 $280.37 $364.02 $498.66 $731.44 $1,252.98
2027-01-03 $181.50 $222.71 $279.02 $366.57 $510.95 $769.93 $1,390.02
2027-01-10 $176.89 $218.18 $275.16 $364.94 $515.92 $795.12 $1,503.20
2027-01-17 $172.57 $213.88 $271.40 $363.17 $520.40 $819.86 $1,624.73
2027-01-24 $172.51 $215.54 $276.38 $375.54 $551.03 $903.45 $1,961.23
2027-01-31 $173.10 $218.11 $282.79 $390.65 $588.44 $1,010.38 $2,463.18
2027-02-07 $168.84 $213.51 $278.13 $386.97 $589.68 $1,034.06 $2,669.41
2027-02-14 $163.08 $206.54 $269.62 $376.30 $576.34 $1,020.24 $2,704.74
2027-02-21 $160.11 $203.57 $267.12 $375.79 $583.17 $1,058.11 $3,016.52
2027-02-28 $159.03 $203.34 $268.83 $382.61 $605.44 $1,140.90 $3,671.52
2027-03-07 $157.75 $202.74 $269.92 $388.38 $626.19 $1,225.31 $4,510.01
2027-03-14 $156.38 $202.23 $271.54 $396.02 $653.71 $1,344.00 $6,055.65
2027-03-21 $154.89 $201.52 $272.85 $403.30 $681.94 $1,478.34 $8,642.43

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.